Pennsylvania Governor
Incumbent: Josh Shapiro, currently Democratic.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 18 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Shapiro | Garrity | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17–23 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 501 RV | 50 | 25 | D+25 | D+24.9 moved 0.1 toward R | 10% | source |
| Aug 18–22 | PennLive for the Bravo Group | 711 RV | 56 | 25 | D+31 | D+30.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 10% | source |
| Aug 18–22 | Bravo Group for PennLive | 711 LV | 56.4 | 25.2 | D+31 | D+30.7 moved 0.5 toward R | 17% | source |
| Aug 17–21 | The New York Times/Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 760 LV | 54.8 | 38.7 | D+16 | D+16.6 moved 0.6 toward D | 19% | source |
| Jul 26–30 | National Public AffairsREP.-ALIGNED | 600 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | D+11.1 moved 4.1 toward D | 14% | source |
| Jul 17–24 | Bravo Group for PennLive | 630 LV | 53.4 | 28.1 | D+25 | D+24.8 moved 0.5 toward R | 5.8% | source |
| Jul 9–13 | Quinnipiac University | 895 RV | 53 | 40 | D+13 | D+13.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 5.6% | source |
| Jun 18–25 | PennLive for the Bravo Group | 644 RV | 54 | 29 | D+25 | D+24.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 2.5% | source |
| Jun 18–25 | Bravo Group for PennLive | 644 LV | 53.7 | 29.3 | D+24 | D+23.9 moved 0.5 toward R | 2.0% | source |
| Jun 8–14 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 546 RV | 50 | 28 | D+22 | D+21.9 moved 0.1 toward R | 2.1% | source |
| Jun 9–11 | MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | 600 LV | 48 | 31 | D+17 | D+17.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 6.9% | source |
| May 20–24 | PennLive for the Bravo Group | 683 LV | 53 | 29 | D+24 | D+23.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 1.4% | source |
| May 20–24 | Bravo Group for PennLive | 684 LV | 53.4 | 28.8 | D+25 | D+24.1 moved 0.5 toward R | 0.7% | source |
| Mar 18–29 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 700 LV | 58 | 36 | D+22 | D+22.0 | 2.9% | source |
| Feb 18 – Mar 1 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 834 RV | 48 | 28 | D+20 | D+19.9 moved 0.1 toward R | 0.3% | source |
| Feb 19–23 | Quinnipiac University | 836 RV | 55 | 37 | D+18 | D+18.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.5% | source |
| Sep 25–29 ’25 | Quinnipiac University | 1,579 RV | 55 | 39 | D+16 | D+16.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.0% | source |
| Sep 22–28 ’25 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 700 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 | D+18.0 | 0.2% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Josh Shapiro | Douglas V. Mastriano | D+14.8 |
| 2018 | Thomas W. Wolf | Scott R. Wagner | D+17.1 |
| 2014 | Thomas W. Wolf | Thomas W. Corbett | D+9.9 |