Governors · 2026

Texas Governor

Gina Hinojosa (D)v.Greg Abbott (R)LEAN R

Incumbent: Greg Abbott, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+4.1

Nine in ten outcomes: D+5 to R+13

Chance of winning

78%

Greg Abbott

Polls alone

R+4.1

32 polls from 19 pollsters; latest Sep 14. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+13.4

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+7.3

National environmentD+2.9

IncumbencyR+8.2

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.3

Fundamentals estimateR+13.4

Input: partisan lean

R+12.2

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 32 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Hinojosa	Abbott	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 12–14	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,000 LV	45.5	48.7	R+3	R+3.2	9.8%	source
Sep 12–13	SoCal Research	649 LV	44	52	R+8	R+8.1 moved 0.1 toward R	6.6%	source
Sep 8–11	Siena College	614 LV	49	45	D+4	D+3.3 moved 0.7 toward R	7.8%	source
Sep 8–10	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for Telemundo	625 LV	41	48	R+7	R+6.7 moved 0.3 toward D	8.8%	source
Aug 27 – Sep 4	YouGov for Univision	1,000 RV	47	47	Even	R+0.5 moved 0.5 toward R	4.2%	source
Aug 30 – Sep 1	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	895 LV	46	49	R+3	R+3.2 moved 0.2 toward R	7.3%	source
Aug 24–26	Overton Insights for Texas Public Policy Foundation	1,167 LV	48.8	51.2	R+2	R+2.3 moved 0.1 toward D	6.0%	source
Aug 21–24	Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research	1,000 LV	42	49	R+7	R+7.0	5.5%	source
Aug 5–13	YouGov for University of Texas	1,200 RV	40	45	R+5	R+5.5 moved 0.5 toward R	1.6%	source
Aug 9–10	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,000 LV	45	48.5	R+3	R+3.5	3.2%	source
Aug 4–9	GBAODEM.-ALIGNED	1,000 LV	48	49	R+1	R+4.3 moved 3.3 toward R	5.6%	source
Jul 29–31	Cygnal for Uknown Sponsor	800 LV	46	49	R+3	R+3.3 moved 0.3 toward R	5.6%	source
Jul 30–31	Wedgewood Polls	800 LV	44	50	R+6	R+5.6 moved 0.4 toward D	4.4%	source
Jul 27–30	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	1,200 LV	43	49	R+6	R+6.2 moved 0.2 toward R	4.3%	source
Jul 27–30	Siena College for Texas A&M Bush School	619 LV	45	46	R+1	R+1.7 moved 0.7 toward R	2.3%	source
Jul 23–27	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,006 RV	49	50	R+1	R+0.9 moved 0.1 toward D	3.0%	source
Jul 15–17	Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research	1,048 LV	42	45	R+3	R+3.0	1.7%	source
Jun 19–27	The New York Times/Siena College	656 LV	44.2	50.6	R+6	R+5.8 moved 0.6 toward D	3.3%	source
Jun 21	SoCal ResearchREP.-ALIGNED for Red Eagle Politics	800 LV	42.2	53.9	R+12	R+8.0 moved 3.7 toward D	1.2%	source
Jun 5–12	YouGov for University of Texas	1,200 RV	40	47	R+7	R+7.5 moved 0.5 toward R	0.4%	source
Jun 3–4	Quantus Insights	800 LV	41	49	R+8	R+7.7 moved 0.3 toward D	2.2%	source
Jun 1–4	Siena College for Texas A&M Bush School	807 LV	43	49	R+6	R+6.7 moved 0.7 toward R	0.6%	source
May 27–28	Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research	1,670 LV	41	46	R+5	R+5.0	0.5%	source
May 22–23	Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED for Lone Star Rising PAC	643 RV	44	48	R+4	R+7.5 moved 3.5 toward R	1.4%	source
Apr 22 – May 6	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	1,223 LV	43	49	R+6	R+6.2 moved 0.2 toward R	0.8%	source
Apr 10–20	YouGov for University of Texas	1,200 RV	38	44	R+6	R+6.5 moved 0.5 toward R	0.1%	source
Apr 17–20	Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research	1,018 LV	43	48	R+5	R+5.0	0.1%	source
Feb 13–22	University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research	1,117 RV	41	49	R+8	R+8.0	0.4%	source
Feb 2–16	Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov	1,300 RV	35	45	R+10	R+10.0	0.4%	source
Jan 26 – Feb 3	GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Hinojosa's campaign	1,000 LV	43	46	R+3	R+6.3 moved 3.3 toward R	0.3%	source
Jan 20–31	University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov	1,502 LV	42	49	R+7	R+7.0	0.5%	source
Jan 10–12	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,165 RV	42.3	50.2	R+8	R+7.9	0.1%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Beto O'Rourke	Greg Abbott	R+10.9
2018	Lupe Valdez	Greg Abbott	R+13.3
2014	Wendy R. Davis	Greg Abbott	R+20.4