Nevada Governor
Incumbent: Joe Lombardo, currently Republican.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 13 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Ford | Lombardo | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5–8 | Emerson College for KLAS-TV Las Vegas | 680 LV | 44.2 | 42.1 | D+2 | D+2.1 | 26% | source |
| Jul 25–29 | Tarrance GroupREP.-ALIGNED for Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association | 550 LV | 43 | 50 | R+7 | R+3.1 moved 3.9 toward D | 12% | source |
| Jul 27–29 | Public Opinion StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for Republican Governors Association | 600 LV | 42 | 51 | R+9 | R+5.0 moved 4.0 toward D | 11% | source |
| Jul 15–16 | Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED for Democratic Governors Association | 558 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | R+3.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 13% | source |
| Jul 8–16 | Grassroots TargetingREP.-ALIGNED for Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association | 2,500 LV | 40 | 52 | R+12 | R+8.1 moved 3.9 toward D | 10% | source |
| Jul 9–12 | Wedgewood Polls | 700 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | R+2.6 moved 0.4 toward D | 9.9% | source |
| Jul 6–8 | Grassroots TargetingREP.-ALIGNED for Better Nevada PAC and the Republican Governors Association | — LV | 40 | 52 | R+12 | R+8.1 moved 3.9 toward D | 4.7% | source |
| Jun 27–29 | Public Opinion StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for the Republican Governors Association | — LV | 42 | 51 | R+9 | R+5.0 moved 4.0 toward D | 3.9% | source |
| May 5–11 | Global Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED | 700 LV | 42 | 45 | R+3 | R+6.7 moved 3.7 toward R | 5.7% | source |
| Mar 10–13 | Noble Predictive Insights | 845 RV | 38 | 39 | R+1 | R+1.2 moved 0.2 toward R | 1.5% | source |
| Feb 11–17 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for The Majority Institute | 800 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | R+6.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 2.1% | source |
| Nov 16–18 ’25 | Emerson College | 800 RV | 41.1 | 41.1 | Even | Even | 0.2% | source |
| Oct 7–13 ’25 | Noble Predictive Insights | 766 RV | 37 | 40 | R+3 | R+3.2 moved 0.2 toward R | 0.1% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Steve Sisolak | Joe Lombardo | R+1.5 |
| 2018 | Steve Sisolak | Adam Paul Laxalt | D+4.1 |
| 2014 | Robert E. Goodman | Brian E. Sandoval | R+46.7 |