Governors · 2026
Hawaii Governor
Josh Green (D)v.Gary Cordery (R)SAFE D
Incumbent: Josh Green, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+29.4
Nine in ten outcomes: D+55 to D+4
Chance of winning
96%
Josh Green
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+29.4
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan leanD+14.6
National environmentD+3.0
IncumbencyD+8.2
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+4.7
Fundamentals estimateD+29.4
Input: partisan lean
D+24.6
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Josh Green | Duke Aiona | D+26.3 |
| 2018 | David Y. Ige | Andria P. L. Tupola | D+29.0 |
| 2014 | David Y. Ige | Duke Aiona | D+12.4 |