Iowa Governor
Open seat, currently Republican.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).
All 21 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Sand | Lahn | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5–6 | Emerson College for Nexstar Media Group | 650 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | D+4.3 moved 0.3 toward D | 14% | source |
| Sep 29 – Oct 5 | SSRS for CNN | 801 LV | 51 | 42 | D+9 | D+8.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 9.9% | source |
| Oct 1–4 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 55 | 43 | D+12 | D+11.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 12% | source |
| Sep 22 – Oct 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | 606 LV | 52 | 41 | D+11 | D+11.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 11% | source |
| Sep 24–28 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,008 LV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 11% | source |
| Sep 17–20 | Marist College | 1,050 RV | 54 | 42 | D+12 | D+11.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 4.9% | source |
| Sep 14–16 | co/efficient | 831 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+4.9 moved 0.9 toward D | 7.3% | source |
| Sep 9–11 | CygnalREP.-ALIGNED for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation | 500 LV | 47.8 | 44.4 | D+3 | D+7.0 moved 3.6 toward D | 8.4% | source |
| Sep 3–8 | YouGov | 2,041 LV | 51 | 40.5 | D+11 | D+10.1 moved 0.4 toward R | 6.4% | source |
| Aug 31 – Sep 1 | Emerson College for Nexstar | 750 LV | 48.6 | 45.5 | D+3 | D+3.4 moved 0.3 toward D | 3.5% | source |
| Aug 27–29 | Wedgewood Polls | 600 LV | 51 | 46 | D+5 | D+5.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 5.2% | source |
| Aug 20–23 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47.8 | 43.6 | D+4 | D+3.5 moved 0.7 toward R | 2.6% | source |
| Aug 2–4 | Emerson College for Nexstar | 712 LV | 48.4 | 42.7 | D+6 | D+6.0 moved 0.3 toward D | 1.0% | source |
| Jun 23–27 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,003 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.6% | source |
| Jun 15–27 | The New York Times/Siena College | 600 LV | 48.2 | 46.5 | D+2 | D+1.7 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.9% | source |
| Jun 16–19 | CygnalREP.-ALIGNED for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation | 600 LV | 47.7 | 43.4 | D+4 | D+7.9 moved 3.6 toward D | 0.9% | source |
| Jun 15–17 | The New York Times/Siena College | 600 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | D+1.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.4% | source |
| Apr 23–28 | Global Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED | — LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 | D+5.4 moved 3.6 toward R | 0.6% | source |
| Apr 3–9 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 377 LV | 51 | 39 | D+12 | D+12.3 moved 0.3 toward D | 0.4% | source |
| Mar 10–16 | GBAO StrategiesDEM.-ALIGNED for Moderate Democrats PAC | 1,200 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | D+4.4 moved 3.6 toward R | 0.2% | source |
| Oct 9–13 ’25 | Z to A ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED | 1,351 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | R+1.2 moved 3.2 toward R | 0.0% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Deidre DeJear | Kim Reynolds | R+18.5 |
| 2018 | Fred Hubbell | Kim Reynolds | R+2.7 |
| 2014 | Jack G. Hatch | Terry E. Branstad | R+21.7 |