Governors · 2026

Iowa Governor

Rob Sand (D)v.Zach Lahn (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin

D+5.7

Nine in ten outcomes: D+15 to R+4

Chance of winning

85%

Rob Sand

Polls alone

D+5.7

15 polls from 12 pollsters; latest Sep 16. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+5.2

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+7.0

National environmentD+2.9

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateR+5.2

Input: partisan lean

R+11.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 15 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Sand	Lahn	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–16	co/efficient	831 LV	46	42	D+4	D+4.9 moved 0.9 toward D	13%	source
Sep 9–11	CygnalREP.-ALIGNED for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	500 LV	47.8	44.4	D+3	D+6.8 moved 3.4 toward D	15%	source
Sep 3–8	YouGov	2,041 LV	51	40.5	D+11	D+10.0 moved 0.5 toward R	12%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 1	Emerson College for Nexstar	750 LV	48.6	45.5	D+3	D+3.1	14%	source
Aug 27–29	Wedgewood Polls	600 LV	51	46	D+5	D+5.4 moved 0.4 toward D	10%	source
Aug 20–23	Suffolk University	500 LV	47.8	43.6	D+4	D+4.3 moved 0.1 toward D	11%	source
Aug 2–4	Emerson College for Nexstar	712 LV	48.4	42.7	D+6	D+5.7	4.9%	source
Jun 15–27	The New York Times/Siena College	600 LV	48.2	46.5	D+2	D+2.2 moved 0.6 toward D	5.4%	source
Jun 23–27	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,003 RV	53	44	D+9	D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D	3.4%	source
Jun 16–19	CygnalREP.-ALIGNED for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	600 LV	47.7	43.4	D+4	D+7.7 moved 3.4 toward D	2.8%	source
Jun 15–17	The New York Times/Siena College	600 LV	48	47	D+1	D+1.6 moved 0.6 toward D	2.4%	source
Apr 23–28	Global Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED	— LV	50	41	D+9	D+5.3 moved 3.7 toward R	2.8%	source
Apr 3–9	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	377 LV	51	39	D+12	D+12.3 moved 0.3 toward D	2.1%	source
Mar 10–16	GBAO StrategiesDEM.-ALIGNED for Moderate Democrats PAC	1,200 LV	50	42	D+8	D+4.4 moved 3.6 toward R	1.4%	source
Oct 9–13 ’25	Z to A ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED	1,351 LV	45	43	D+2	R+1.4 moved 3.4 toward R	0.2%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Deidre DeJear	Kim Reynolds	R+18.5
2018	Fred Hubbell	Kim Reynolds	R+2.7
2014	Jack G. Hatch	Terry E. Branstad	R+21.7