Governors · 2026

Florida Governor

David Jolly (D)v.Byron Donalds (R)LEAN R

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+1.7

Nine in ten outcomes: D+8 to R+11

Chance of winning

62%

Byron Donalds

Polls alone

R+1.7

22 polls from 15 pollsters; latest Sep 17. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+5.1

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+6.9

National environmentD+2.9

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateR+5.1

Input: partisan lean

R+11.6

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 22 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Jolly	Donalds	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 15–17	St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics	913 LV	43.4	43.5	Even	R+0.3 moved 0.2 toward R	19%	source
Sep 7–9	Change Research for Freedom Project USA	1,107 LV	47	44	D+3	D+3.5 moved 0.5 toward D	17%	source
Aug 10–13	Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for Democratic Governors Association	600 LV	46	45	D+1	R+2.3 moved 3.3 toward R	16%	source
Jul 20–26	Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute	1,026 LV	38	45	R+7	R+6.6 moved 0.4 toward D	8.5%	source
Jul 8–17	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	848 LV	41.4	46.1	R+5	R+4.5 moved 0.2 toward D	9.1%	source
Jul 9–11	Change Research	1,348 RV	39	38.5	D+1	D+1.0 moved 0.5 toward D	2.4%	source
Jun 8–9	Gravis Marketing	668 LV	29.8	34.9	R+5	R+5.0 moved 0.1 toward D	5.0%	source
May 13–16	Change Research for Freedom Project USA	1,593 LV	46	42	D+4	D+4.5 moved 0.5 toward D	1.0%	source
May 1–9	Cherry CommunicationsREP.-ALIGNED for Florida Chamber of Commerce	604 LV	39	47	R+8	R+4.3 moved 3.7 toward D	3.4%	source
Apr 27	The Public Sentiment Institute	687 LV	40	40	Even	D+0.1 moved 0.1 toward D	3.4%	source
Mar 25 – Apr 13	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	848 LV	40	47	R+7	R+6.9 moved 0.1 toward D	2.9%	source
Apr 3–9	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	406 LV	43	49	R+6	R+5.7 moved 0.3 toward D	3.1%	source
Mar 27 – Apr 3	MDW Communications for EDGE Communications	1,834 LV	40.5	41.2	R+1	R+0.7	2.5%	source
Mar 29–31	Emerson College	1,125 LV	39.4	44.2	R+5	R+4.8	3.2%	source
Feb 21 – Mar 2	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	776 LV	36	42	R+6	R+5.8 moved 0.2 toward D	0.9%	source
Feb 20	Public Sentiment Institute	200 RV	42.3	35.8	D+7	D+6.5	0.9%	source
Feb 20	The Public Sentiment Institute	124 LV	42.3	35.8	D+7	D+6.6 moved 0.1 toward D	0.8%	source
Feb 13–16	Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute	1,129 LV	36	41	R+5	R+4.6 moved 0.4 toward D	0.6%	source
Oct 15–25 ’25	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabDEM.-ALIGNED for Florida Watch	728 LV	34	45	R+11	R+14.5 moved 3.5 toward R	0.1%	source
Sep 16–18 ’25	Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute	1,118 RV	32	36	R+4	R+3.6 moved 0.4 toward D	0.0%	source
Sep 7–9 ’25	Bendixen & Amandi InternationalDEM.-ALIGNED for Jolly's campaign	631 LV	41	40	D+1	R+2.7 moved 3.7 toward R	0.2%	source
Aug 25–27 ’25	McLaughlin & Associates for Associated Industries of Florida	800 LV	41	49	R+8	R+7.8 moved 0.2 toward D	0.2%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Charlie Crist	Ron DeSantis	R+19.4
2018	Andrew Gillum	Ron DeSantis	R+0.4
2014	Charlie Crist	Rick Scott	R+1.1