Rhode Island Governor
Open seat, currently Democratic. Three-way race: Ken Block is polling at about 20%, ahead of the Republican (17%), in the 4 polls that name all three. The margin shown is Democrat minus Republican, and the model gives a third candidate no chance of winning, so read this race's numbers with care.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 4 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Foulkes | Guckian | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20–24 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 739 LV | 40 | 15 | D+25 | D+25.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 34% | source |
| Aug 21–22 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 45 | 18 | D+27 | D+27.0 | 50% | source |
| Jun 18–23 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 664 LV | 38 | 22 | D+16 | D+16.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 7.9% | source |
| Apr 13–16 | Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaign | 802 LV | 33 | 16 | D+17 | D+17.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 8.8% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Daniel J. McKee | Ashley Kalus | D+19.1 |
| 2018 | Gina M. Raimondo | Allan W. Fung | D+15.5 |
| 2014 | Gina M. Raimondo | Allan W. Fung | D+4.5 |