Governors · 2026

Oregon Governor

Tina Kotek (D)v.Christine Drazan (R)TOSS-UP

Incumbent: Tina Kotek, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

R+0.5

Nine in ten outcomes: D+10 to R+11

Chance of winning

53%

Christine Drazan

Polls alone

R+0.5

4 polls from 4 pollsters; latest Sep 9. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

D+17.3

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanD+9.4

National environmentD+2.9

IncumbencyD+8.2

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+2.1

Fundamentals estimateD+17.3

Input: partisan lean

D+15.8

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 4 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Kotek	Drazan	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 3–9	DHM Research for Grow Oregon	600 LV	43	45	R+2	R+1.8 moved 0.2 toward D	68%	source
Jun 22–24	Public Opinion StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for Drazan's campaign	600 RV	44	48	R+4	Even moved 4.0 toward D	14%	source
May 11–12	Hoffman Research GroupREP.-ALIGNED for Dudley's campaign	603 LV	45	45	Even	D+3.7 moved 3.7 toward D	14%	source
Jan 28 – Feb 4	FM3 Research for Charlie Health	1,065 LV	45	40	D+5	D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R	4.2%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Tina Kotek	Christine Drazan	D+3.4
2018	Kate Brown	Knute C. Buehler	D+6.4
2016 (special)	Kate Brown	William C. Pierce	D+7.2
2014	John Kitzhaber	Dennis Richardson	D+5.8