New York Governor
Incumbent: Kathy Hochul, currently Democratic.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 21 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Hochul | Blakeman | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27–31 | McLaughlin & AssociatesREP.-ALIGNED for Blakeman's campaign | 800 LV | 49.6 | 45.7 | D+4 | D+7.8 moved 3.9 toward D | 18% | source |
| Aug 19–21 | Concord Public Opinion PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED for Education Reform Now Advocacy | 505 LV | 50 | 34 | D+16 | D+12.2 moved 3.8 toward R | 19% | source |
| Aug 3–6 | Siena College | 811 LV | 49 | 39 | D+10 | D+9.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 15% | source |
| Jul 22–28 | Moxie Strategies for Firefighters Association of the State of New York | 813 A | 49 | 37 | D+12 | D+12.0 | 7.6% | source |
| Jul 7–12 | Google Consumer SurveysREP.-ALIGNED for Strong and Safe New York | 2,000 RV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | D+7.8 moved 3.8 toward D | 6.2% | source |
| Jun 30 – Jul 2 | co/efficient for Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers | 1,085 LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | D+6.9 moved 0.9 toward D | 9.3% | source |
| Jun 23–26 | Siena College | 800 RV | 44 | 19 | D+25 | D+24.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 2.7% | source |
| Jun 17–23 | Siena College | 1,120 RV | 52 | 32 | D+20 | D+19.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 1.3% | source |
| Jun 11–14 | Pollfinity Research | 229 RV | 48 | 37.5 | D+11 | D+10.5 | 4.4% | source |
| Jun 11–14 | Pollfinity | 229 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 | D+10.0 | 7.4% | source |
| Apr 27–30 | Siena College | 806 RV | 49 | 33 | D+16 | D+15.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 0.3% | source |
| Mar 24–26 | Echelon Insights for Tusk Strategies | 500 LV | 55 | 40 | D+15 | D+15.3 moved 0.3 toward D | 3.2% | source |
| Mar 23–26 | Siena College | 804 RV | 47 | 34 | D+13 | D+12.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 0.1% | source |
| Mar 4–8 | McLaughlin & AssociatesREP.-ALIGNED for Blakeman's campaign | 800 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | D+12.9 moved 3.9 toward D | 1.1% | source |
| Feb 23–26 | Siena College | 805 RV | 51 | 31 | D+20 | D+19.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Feb 16–19 | Marist College | 1,442 RV | 50 | 33 | D+17 | D+16.9 moved 0.1 toward R | 1.2% | source |
| Feb 2–4 | MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | 600 LV | 47 | 34 | D+13 | D+13.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 1.5% | source |
| Jan 26–28 | Siena College | 802 RV | 54 | 28 | D+26 | D+25.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Jan 6–8 | John Zogby Strategies | 844 LV | 49 | 34 | D+15 | D+14.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 1.2% | source |
| Dec 8–12 ’25 | Siena College | 801 RV | 50 | 25 | D+25 | D+24.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Nov 9–10 ’25 | J.L. Partners | 500 LV | 47 | 36 | D+11 | D+11.5 moved 0.5 toward D | 0.6% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kathy C. Hochul | Lee M. Zeldin | D+6.4 |
| 2018 | Andrew Cuomo | Marcus Molinaro | D+23.4 |
| 2014 | Andrew Cuomo | Robert P. Astorino | D+14.0 |