Governors · 2026

California Governor

Xavier Becerra (D)v.Steve Hilton (R)SAFE D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+23.4

Nine in ten outcomes: D+31 to D+16

Chance of winning

>99%

Xavier Becerra

Polls alone

D+23.4

21 polls from 13 pollsters; latest Oct 31. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

D+15.3

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanD+12.9

National environmentD+3.5

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateD+15.3

Input: partisan lean

D+21.6

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 21 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Becerra	Hilton	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Oct 17–31	ActiVote	400 LV	63	37	D+26	D+26.1 moved 0.1 toward D	15%	source
Oct 19–25	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for the Los Angeles Times	1,477 LV	61	34	D+27	D+26.8 moved 0.2 toward R	12%	source
Oct 19–24	SurveyUSA for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune	799 LV	54	32	D+22	D+22.0	12%	source
Oct 21–23	M3 StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED	489 LV	59	36	D+23	D+26.6 moved 3.6 toward D	10%	source
Oct 16–22	Public Policy Institute of California	1,086 LV	61	37	D+24	D+24.0	8.2%	source
Oct 17–20	McLaughlin & Associates for the California Post	800 LV	55	39	D+16	D+16.4 moved 0.4 toward D	8.3%	source
Oct 17–19	Emerson College	1,000 LV	62	34.5	D+28	D+27.0 moved 0.5 toward R	11%	source
Sep 24 – Oct 16	ActiVote	400 LV	63	37	D+26	D+26.1 moved 0.1 toward D	3.9%	source
Oct 9–14	Truedot	909 LV	55	35	D+20	D+20.1 moved 0.1 toward D	6.5%	source
Sep 24 – Oct 1	Manhattan InstituteREP.-ALIGNED	1,000 LV	57	39	D+18	D+21.7 moved 3.7 toward D	3.8%	source
Sep 23–28	Independent Voter Project	2,906 LV	48	38	D+10	D+10.2 moved 0.2 toward D	3.4%	source
Sep 15–20	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times	4,512 LV	58	33	D+25	D+24.8 moved 0.2 toward R	1.3%	source
Sep 15–20	SurveyUSA for ABC 10 News \| KGTV-TV (California) \| San Diego Union-Tribune	742 LV	55	33	D+22	D+22.0	1.3%	source
Sep 11–16	Verasight for Politico	1,983 LV	54	36	D+18	D+17.7 moved 0.3 toward R	2.0%	source
Sep 8–14	Truedot for Politico \| UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research	1,983 LV	54	36	D+18	D+18.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.9%	source
Sep 4–10	Public Policy Institute of California	1,098 LV	60	38	D+22	D+22.0	0.7%	source
Aug 3–9	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times	2,310 LV	55	37	D+18	D+17.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.1%	source
Jun 29 – Jul 6	Public Policy Institute of California	1,003 LV	61	36	D+25	D+25.0	0.0%	source
Jun 13–17	Kreate Strategies	900 RV	58	33	D+25	D+24.7 moved 0.3 toward R	0.0%	source
May 23–26	USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona for CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona California Elections and Policy	735 LV	58	35	D+23	D+23.0	0.0%	source
May 19–24	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times	8,578 RV	52	31	D+21	D+20.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Gavin Newsom	Brian Dahle	D+18.4
2021 (recall)	Gavin Newsom	—	Retained, 61.9% to 38.1%
2018	Gavin Newsom	John Cox	D+23.9
2014	Jerry Brown	Neel Kashkari	D+19.9