Governors · 2026

Maine Governor

Hannah Pingree (D)v.Robert B. Charles (R)SAFE D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+11.9

Nine in ten outcomes: D+20 to D+3

Chance of winning

98%

Hannah Pingree

Polls alone

D+11.9

14 polls from 10 pollsters; latest Oct 5. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

D+6.9

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanD+5.0

National environmentD+3.0

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateD+6.9

Input: partisan lean

D+8.4

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Likely D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 14 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Pingree	Charles	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 30 – Oct 5	The Washington Post	800 LV	49	36	D+13	D+12.6 moved 0.4 toward R	14%	source
Oct 1–4	Marist College	1,505 RV	52	40	D+12	D+11.3 moved 0.7 toward R	7.6%	source
Sep 23 – Oct 1	YouGov	1,133 LV	56	44	D+12	D+11.6 moved 0.4 toward R	12%	source
Sep 28–30	co/efficientREP.-ALIGNED	1,240 LV	47	38	D+9	D+13.6 moved 4.6 toward D	11%	source
Sep 15–22	The New York Times/Siena College for Portland Press Herald; Maine Trust for Local News	619 LV	47	34.4	D+13	D+12.6 moved 0.1 toward D	11%	source
Sep 20–22	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	982 LV	52	39	D+13	D+12.8 moved 0.2 toward R	11%	source
Sep 17–21	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	1,312 LV	48	40	D+8	D+7.1 moved 0.9 toward R	8.0%	source
Aug 28 – Sep 14	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	650 LV	49	38	D+11	D+11.1 moved 0.1 toward D	8.4%	source
Sep 2–8	YouGov	1,334 LV	47	36	D+11	D+10.6 moved 0.4 toward R	3.8%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 6	CNN	880 LV	52	39	D+13	D+13.0	7.0%	source
Aug 6–10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,000 RV	49	38	D+11	D+11.1 moved 0.1 toward D	3.1%	source
Jul 15–20	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	1,150 LV	49	35	D+14	D+13.1 moved 0.9 toward R	1.2%	source
Jun 23–27	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,003 RV	53	42	D+11	D+11.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.7%	source
Jun 19–26	The New York Times/Siena College for Portland Press Herald	608 LV	49.6	36.4	D+13	D+13.3 moved 0.1 toward D	1.1%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Janet T. Mills	Paul R. LePage	D+13.2
2018	Janet T. Mills	Shawn H. Moody	D+7.7
2014	Michael H. Michaud	Paul R. LePage	R+4.8