Governors · 2026
Oklahoma Governor
Cyndi Munson (D)v.Mike Mazzei (R)LIKELY R
Open seat, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+17.7
Nine in ten outcomes: D+8 to R+43
Chance of winning
88%
Mike Mazzei
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+17.7
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan leanR+19.5
National environmentD+2.9
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateR+17.7
Input: partisan lean
R+32.8
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joy Hofmeister | Kevin Stitt | R+13.7 |
| 2018 | Drew Edmondson | Kevin Stitt | R+12.1 |
| 2014 | Joe Dorman | Mary Fallin | R+14.8 |