Governors · 2026

Nebraska Governor

Lynne Walz (D)v.Jim Pillen (R)LIKELY R

Incumbent: Jim Pillen, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+10.4

Nine in ten outcomes: Even to R+20

Chance of winning

95%

Jim Pillen

Polls alone

R+10.4

6 polls from 4 pollsters; latest Sep 16. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+17.9

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+11.3

National environmentD+2.9

IncumbencyR+8.2

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+0.2

Fundamentals estimateR+17.9

Input: partisan lean

R+19.0

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 6 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Walz	Pillen	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–16	Wedgewood Polls	500 LV	36	53	R+17	R+16.6 moved 0.4 toward D	34%	source
Sep 8–13	SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC	503 LV	35	43	R+8	R+8.8 moved 0.8 toward R	36%	source
Sep 1–2	Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED for DGA	559 RV	31	32	R+1	R+4.5 moved 3.5 toward R	21%	source
Apr 25–29	Lake Research PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED for Walz's campaign	900 LV	45	47	R+2	R+5.7 moved 3.7 toward R	6.5%	source
Apr 6–7	Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED	670 RV	33	38	R+5	R+8.5 moved 3.5 toward R	1.7%	source
Dec 11–17 ’25	Lake Research PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED for Walz's campaign	900 LV	43	48	R+5	R+8.7 moved 3.7 toward R	0.6%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Carol Blood	Jim Pillen	R+23.2
2018	Robert Krist	Pete Ricketts	R+18.0
2014	Chuck Hassebrook	Pete Ricketts	R+17.9