Governors · 2026
South Dakota Governor
Dan Ahlers (D)v.Larry Rhoden (R)LIKELY R
Incumbent: Larry Rhoden, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+22.9
Nine in ten outcomes: D+3 to R+48
Chance of winning
93%
Larry Rhoden
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+22.9
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan leanR+16.5
National environmentD+2.9
IncumbencyR+8.2
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateR+22.9
Input: partisan lean
R+27.7
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jamie Smith | Kristi Noem | R+26.8 |
| 2018 | Billie H. Sutton | Kristi Noem | R+3.4 |
| 2014 | Susan M. Wismer | Dennis M. Daugaard | R+45.0 |