Governors · 2026

Wisconsin Governor

David Crowley (D)v.Tom Tiffany (R)LEAN D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+3.7

Nine in ten outcomes: D+13 to R+6

Chance of winning

74%

David Crowley

Polls alone

D+3.7

6 polls from 5 pollsters; latest Aug 20. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

D+2.2

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanD+0.4

National environmentD+2.9

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateD+2.2

Input: partisan lean

D+0.6

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 6 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Crowley	Tiffany	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Aug 12–20	Marquette University Law School	738 LV	49	44	D+5	D+4.9 moved 0.1 toward R	22%	source
Aug 14–18	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,187 LV	46.7	43.4	D+3	D+6.1 moved 2.8 toward D	24%	source
Aug 12–13	Platform Communications for Badger Battleground Poll	500 LV	48	44	D+4	D+4.0	21%	source
Jul 30 – Aug 3	GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Protect Our Wisconsin	800 LV	47	44	D+3	R+0.3 moved 3.3 toward R	21%	source
Jul 20–24	RMG Research for Institute for Reforming Government \| Napolitan News Service	800 RV	46	43	D+3	D+2.7 moved 0.3 toward R	11%	source
Mar 13–19	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,168 LV	42.3	40.8	D+2	D+4.3 moved 2.8 toward D	1.9%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Tony Evers	Tim Michels	D+3.4
2018	Tony Evers	Scott Walker	D+1.1
2014	Mary Burke	Scott Walker	R+5.7
2012 (recall)	Thomas M. Barrett	Scott Walker	R+6.8