Governors · 2026

Kansas Governor

Cindy Holscher (D)v.Ty Masterson (R)LEAN R

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

R+4.3

Nine in ten outcomes: D+5 to R+13

Chance of winning

79%

Ty Masterson

Polls alone

R+4.3

7 polls from 6 pollsters; latest Oct 4. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+6.8

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+8.7

National environmentD+3.0

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateR+6.8

Input: partisan lean

R+14.6

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 7 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Holscher	Masterson	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 24 – Oct 4	YouGov	2,255 LV	44	47	R+3	R+3.4 moved 0.4 toward R	18%	source
Sep 22–30	The New York Times/Siena College	605 LV	44	49	R+5	R+4.9 moved 0.1 toward D	19%	source
Sep 22–24	Wedgewood Polls	500 LV	48	52	R+4	R+3.8 moved 0.2 toward D	15%	source
Sep 15–16	Emerson College for Nexstar	750 LV	43.5	50.8	R+7	R+7.1 moved 0.3 toward D	16%	source
Sep 13–16	Global Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for the Democratic Attorneys General Association	800 LV	49	46	D+3	R+0.6 moved 3.6 toward R	16%	source
Sep 8–10	co/efficient	915 LV	43	51	R+8	R+7.1 moved 0.9 toward D	12%	source
Aug 13–16	Global Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for Holscher's campaign	600 LV	47	46	D+1	R+2.6 moved 3.6 toward R	4.4%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Laura Kelly	Derek Schmidt	D+2.2
2018	Laura Kelly	Kris W. Kobach	D+5.1
2014	Paul Davis	Sam Brownback	R+3.7