Governors · 2026
Colorado Governor
Phil Weiser (D)v.Victor Marx (R)LEAN D
Open seat, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+9.2
Nine in ten outcomes: D+35 to R+16
Chance of winning
73%
Phil Weiser
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+9.2
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan leanD+7.4
National environmentD+2.9
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateD+9.2
Input: partisan lean
D+12.5
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jared Polis | Heidi Ganahl | D+19.4 |
| 2018 | Jared Polis | Walker Stapleton | D+10.6 |
| 2014 | John Wright Hickenlooper | Bob Beauprez | D+3.3 |