Senate · 2026

Ohio Senate (special)

Sherrod Brown (D)v.Jon Husted (R)LEAN D

Incumbent: Jon Husted, currently Republican.

Projected margin

D+1.5

Nine in ten outcomes: D+10 to R+7

Chance of winning

61%

Sherrod Brown

Polls alone

D+3.6

20 polls from 16 pollsters; latest Sep 16. Weight in projection: 69%.

Fundamentals alone

R+3.2

Weight in projection: 31%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+7.2

National environmentD+3.3

IncumbencyR+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapD+2.1

Fundamentals estimateR+3.2

Input: partisan lean

R+9.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$17.6M D · $5.1M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 20 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Brown	Husted	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–16	Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED	1,085 LV	45.4	41.5	D+4	D+7.0 moved 3.1 toward D	15%	source
Sep 1–10	YouGov for Bowling Green State University	1,000 LV	48	45	D+3	D+2.5 moved 0.5 toward R	13%	source
Sep 8–9	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	47.3	41.9	D+5	D+5.3 moved 0.1 toward R	14%	source
Aug 26–28	Abacus Data	306 LV	46	41	D+5	D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R	11%	source
Aug 11–13	Wedgewood Polls	800 LV	48	44	D+4	D+4.4 moved 0.4 toward D	9.2%	source
Aug 6–10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,008 RV	53	45	D+8	D+8.1 moved 0.1 toward D	6.4%	source
Jul 29 – Aug 4	Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General	600 LV	47	43	D+4	D+0.5 moved 3.5 toward R	8.4%	source
Jun 15–28	The New York Times/Siena College	601 LV	47	49.8	R+3	R+2.2 moved 0.6 toward D	6.0%	source
Jun 14–16	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	800 LV	48	45	D+3	D+2.8 moved 0.2 toward R	5.1%	source
Jun 2–4	Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General	600 LV	46	42	D+4	D+0.5 moved 3.5 toward R	2.0%	source
May 28 – Jun 1	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,015 RV	53	45	D+8	D+8.1 moved 0.1 toward D	1.4%	source
Apr 7–14	Bowling Green State University/YouGov	1,000 RV	47	50	R+3	R+2.9 moved 0.1 toward D	1.3%	source
Apr 3–9	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	413 LV	45	51	R+6	R+5.7 moved 0.3 toward D	2.3%	source
Mar 13–14	Quantus Insights	784 LV	44.4	45.5	R+1	R+0.8 moved 0.3 toward D	1.4%	source
Mar 3–8	OnMessage Inc. for Insurance Watchdog Coalition	600 LV	47	45	D+2	D+2.0	1.5%	source
Feb 10–22	EMC ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Ohio Environmental Council	1,343 LV	51	47	D+4	D+0.4 moved 3.6 toward R	1.2%	source
Dec 6–8 ’25	Emerson College	850 RV	46.3	48.8	R+3	R+2.5	0.4%	source
Oct 2–14 ’25	Bowling Green State University/YouGov	800 RV	49	48	D+1	D+1.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.1%	source
Sep 19–22 ’25	Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for the Ohio Federation of Teachers	800 LV	48	45	D+3	R+0.3 moved 3.3 toward R	0.2%	source
Aug 18–19 ’25	Emerson College	1,000 RV	43.7	49.5	R+6	R+5.8	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2024	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno	R+3.6
2022	Tim Ryan	JD Vance	R+6.1
2018	Sherrod Brown	Jim Renacci	D+6.8
2016	Ted Strickland	Rob Portman	R+20.9