House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Echelon Insights

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2016 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.15
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.65; 17% own record)
Average miss
3.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
26
21 races · 55 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201624.4−0.3D+0.6
202042.3−2.2R+1.9
202111.1−2.1R+4.7
202283.2−0.2R+0.2
2024103.1+0.1R+1.8
202513.4−3.0D+3.1
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jul 13, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jun 22, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jun 14, 2026Generic ballotD+6
May 18, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Apr 20, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Apr 9, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedR+6
Apr 9, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Apr 9, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonD+1
Apr 9, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+7
Apr 9, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyR+5
Apr 9, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+12
Apr 9, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonD+6
Apr 9, 2026Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+6
Mar 26, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+15
Mar 16, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Feb 23, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jan 26, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Dec 15, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Nov 17, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Oct 20, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Sep 22, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Sep 7, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Aug 18, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Jul 14, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Jun 18, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Jun 17, 2025Generic ballotR+1
May 12, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Apr 14, 2025Generic ballotEven
Mar 13, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Feb 13, 2025Generic ballotR+1
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 31, 20252025-GOV-VA D+12D+15.4R+3.4R+6.5
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 Generic ballotR+1R+2.7D+1.7D+3.4
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8D+0.2D+3.0
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, PAR+3R+0.2R+2.8D+4.9
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, MID+2D+0.3D+1.7D+4.2
Oct 30, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.9D+3.0
Oct 30, 20242024 President, PAR+6R+1.7R+3.8D+2.7
Oct 30, 20242024 President, MIEvenR+1.4D+1.4D+3.7
Sep 25, 20242024 Generic ballotD+5R+2.7D+7.7D+3.4
Sep 25, 20242024 PresidentD+6R+1.5D+7.5D+3.7
Nov 2, 20222022 Governor, GAR+8R+7.5R+0.5D+0.5
Nov 2, 20222022 Senate, GAR+6D+1.0R+6.5D+0.5
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, NVR+1D+0.8R+1.8R+0.6
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, NVR+2R+1.5EvenD+0.7
Oct 26, 20222022 Generic ballotD+2R+2.6D+4.6D+2.8
Oct 20, 20222022 Senate, PAD+3D+4.9R+1.9R+2.7
Oct 20, 20222022 Governor, PAD+12D+14.8R+2.8R+3.9
Sep 19, 20222022 Generic ballotD+5R+2.6D+7.6D+2.8
Oct 29, 20212021 Governor, VAR+3R+1.9R+1.1D+3.7
Oct 20, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.1D+4.4
Oct 20, 20202020 Generic ballotD+4D+3.0D+1.0D+4.0
Sep 25, 20202020 PresidentD+9D+4.4D+4.1D+4.4
Sep 25, 20202020 Generic ballotD+5D+3.0D+2.0D+4.0
Sep 26, 20162016 HouseD+5R+1.0D+6.0D+4.5
Sep 26, 20162016 PresidentD+5D+2.2D+2.8D+3.2