Pollster record · how records are scored
EMC Research
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2000 to 2020 · 88% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.03
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.65; 9% own record)
Average miss
7.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
32
24 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4 | 2.8 | −1.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2002 | 3 | 11.1 | +4.3 | D+0.6 |
| 2004 | 4 | 5.1 | +0.8 | R+0.6 |
| 2006 | 7 | 8.2 | +3.8 | D+2.7 |
| 2008 | 3 | 7.1 | +1.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2010 | 5 | 7.1 | +1.7 | D+0.5 |
| 2012 | 1 | 6.5 | −3.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2014 | 1 | 11.5 | +4.6 | — |
| 2020 | 4 | 12.2 | +5.3 | R+1.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+10 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 House, NC-11D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+12.2 | D+15.2 | — |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 President, TXD-ALIGNED | Even | R+5.6 | D+5.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 House, NC-11D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+12.2 | D+16.2 | — |
| Sep 5, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-25D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.8 | D+11.8 | — |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2014 House, MI-6D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+15.5 | D+11.5 | — |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 Senate, CTD-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+12.5 | R+6.5 | R+10.3 |
| Oct 3, 2010 | 2010 Governor, SCD-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+4.5 | R+0.5 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 26, 2010 | 2010 Governor, FLD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.1 | D+2.1 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 26, 2010 | 2010 Governor, SCD-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+4.5 | R+5.5 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 22, 2010 | 2010 House, FL-24D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+19.3 | D+21.3 | D+7.7 |
| Sep 10, 2010 | 2010 Senate, CTD-ALIGNED | D+15 | D+9.3 | D+5.7 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 12, 2008 | 2008 President, FL | D+4 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 8, 2008 | 2008 House, FL-25D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+6.1 | D+3.1 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 13, 2008 | 2008 House, FL-24D-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+16.1 | R+17.1 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 27, 2006 | 2006 Senate, TND-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+2.7 | D+8.7 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 23, 2006 | 2006 Senate, TND-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 20, 2006 | 2006 House, FL-13D-ALIGNED | D+11 | R+0.2 | D+11.2 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 3, 2006 | 2006 House, FL-13D-ALIGNED | D+12 | R+0.2 | D+12.2 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 3, 2006 | 2006 Senate, TND-ALIGNED | D+7 | R+2.7 | D+9.7 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 24, 2006 | 2006 House, KY-2D-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+10.8 | D+2.8 | D+5.3 |
| Sep 10, 2006 | 2006 House, FL-13D-ALIGNED | D+8 | R+0.2 | D+8.2 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 26, 2004 | 2004 Senate, FL | Even | R+1.1 | D+1.1 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 26, 2004 | 2004 President, FL | R+2 | R+5.0 | D+3.0 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 14, 2004 | 2004 House, TX-32D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+10.3 | D+9.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 3, 2004 | 2004 President, FLD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+5.0 | D+7.0 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 14, 2002 | 2002 House, OK-4D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+7.7 | D+6.7 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 10, 2002 | 2002 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | D+12 | R+6.8 | D+18.8 | D+11.9 |
| Sep 14, 2002 | 2002 Governor, FLD-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+12.8 | D+7.8 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 Senate, WAD-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+0.1 | R+4.1 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 Governor, WAD-ALIGNED | D+24 | D+18.7 | D+5.3 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 President, WAD-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+5.6 | D+0.4 | R+2.5 |
| Sep 11, 2000 | 2000 President, WA | D+4 | D+5.6 | R+1.6 | R+2.5 |