Pollster record · how records are scored
OnMessage Inc.
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2002 to 2025 · 89% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.24
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.52; 29% own record)
Average miss
4.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
74
53 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2 | 3.8 | +0.3 | D+0.5 |
| 2003 | 3 | 10.2 | +4.3 | R+1.2 |
| 2008 | 2 | 3.4 | −5.9 | R+8.0 |
| 2010 | 8 | 5.0 | −3.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2012 | 6 | 11.0 | +5.0 | R+4.8 |
| 2013 | 2 | 5.2 | +1.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | 4.8 | +0.5 | R+4.2 |
| 2020 | 8 | 5.7 | −0.3 | R+1.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | 5.4 | +0.3 | D+1.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | 1.5 | −1.9 | R+0.2 |
| 2025 | 1 | 10.4 | +3.0 | R+0.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+2 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+15.4 | R+10.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.7 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+3 | R+5.5 | D+2.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+2 | R+1.7 | R+0.3 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | Even | D+2.4 | R+2.4 | D+5.1 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | Even | R+0.2 | D+0.2 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+1 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 PresidentR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+2.7 | D+1.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+2.7 | R+2.3 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 PresidentR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NVR-ALIGNED | Even | D+1.6 | R+1.6 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, OHR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+3.6 | D+1.6 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, NVR-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+3.1 | D+0.1 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, WIR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+0.8 | R+1.8 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, OHR-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+11.2 | D+3.2 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.7 | R+1.3 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 PresidentR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, NVR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+3.1 | D+1.1 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, MIR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.4 | D+3.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, GAR-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+2.2 | R+0.8 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, PAR-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, AZR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 President, WIR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 President, PAR-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+0.2 | D+1.2 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+2.7 | R+2.3 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 House, VA-10R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+6.5 | R+4.5 | — |
| Oct 10, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+4.9 | R+1.9 | R+1.1 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, COR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+14.6 | R+13.6 | R+4.5 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WAR-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+14.5 | R+10.5 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | 2022 House, CA-26R-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+9.1 | R+4.3 | — |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WIR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+1.0 | R+3.0 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+4.9 | D+5.1 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 1, 2020 | 2020 President, OHR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+8.0 | D+7.5 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, NCR-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+1.3 | R+11.1 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, AZR-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+0.3 | R+3.9 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, WIR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+0.6 | D+7.7 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, FLR-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+3.4 | R+6.2 | D+5.6 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, COR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+13.5 | R+5.6 | R+1.6 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-17R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+2.3 | R+1.3 | — |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 President, OHR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+8.0 | D+2.3 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MOR-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+5.8 | R+1.2 | D+5.2 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FLR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+0.1 | R+4.9 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+0.4 | R+2.6 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 House, NH-1R-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+8.6 | R+10.6 | D+2.8 |
| Jun 16, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MAR-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+10.2 | R+3.2 | R+0.4 |
| May 6, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MAR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+10.2 | R+7.2 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 25, 2012 | 2012 House, OH-16R-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+4.1 | R+5.9 | — |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, MN-8R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+8.9 | R+18.9 | R+8.0 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, RI-1R-ALIGNED | R+6 | D+12.1 | R+18.1 | R+7.2 |
| Sep 30, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-19R-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+0.8 | R+7.2 | R+6.9 |
| Sep 30, 2012 | 2012 House, AZ-2R-ALIGNED | Even | D+0.8 | R+0.8 | D+9.3 |
| Sep 24, 2012 | 2012 House, TX-23R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+4.8 | R+14.8 | R+3.7 |
| Oct 19, 2010 | 2010 House, TX-23R-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+5.0 | R+1.0 | R+6.0 |