Pollster record · how records are scored
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research
Method not recorded · scored polls from 2022 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.03
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.81; 3% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
7.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
4
4 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 10.4 | +0.0 | D+0.5 |
| 2024 | 2 | 5.4 | −1.6 | R+2.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+7 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | R+13 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+7 | R+13.1 | D+6.1 | D+7.3 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+8 | R+12.8 | D+4.8 | D+8.2 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+8 | R+19.4 | D+11.4 | D+9.9 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+16.4 | D+9.4 | D+9.9 |