Pollster record · how records are scored
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2008 to 2024 · 53% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.42; 10% own record)
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
19
18 races · 6 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2 | 3.5 | +0.7 | R+1.6 |
| 2014 | 2 | 3.0 | −0.9 | D+1.7 |
| 2015 | 1 | 11.7 | −0.1 | Even |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.0 | −1.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0.3 | −5.0 | R+0.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4.2 | −0.1 | R+2.8 |
| 2024 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.9 | D+0.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | R+1 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FL-13 | Leela Gray v. Anna Paulina Luna | R+8 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | FL-13 | Leela Gray v. Anna Paulina Luna | R+8 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+7 | |
| May 19, 2025 | Generic ballot | Even |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-1R-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+10.4 | D+2.4 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, CT-5 | Even | D+0.2 | R+0.2 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, CT-4 | D+16 | D+19.9 | R+3.9 | — |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, CT-2 | D+21 | D+18.0 | D+2.5 | — |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+4.9 | R+4.4 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+0.7 | R+3.7 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NHR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+15.5 | R+1.5 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NHR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+9.1 | R+7.1 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, CT | D+5 | D+13.1 | R+8.1 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CT | D+7 | D+11.4 | R+4.9 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, ILR-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+12.5 | R+6.0 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+2.3 | R+0.3 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WVR-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+3.3 | R+5.3 | D+3.9 |
| Sep 6, 2018 | 2018 House, KY-6R-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+3.2 | R+0.8 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 14, 2015 | 2015 Governor, KY | D+3 | R+8.7 | D+11.7 | D+11.7 |
| Sep 28, 2014 | 2014 Governor, ILR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+3.9 | D+5.9 | D+4.0 |
| Feb 17, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-13 | R+2 | R+1.9 | R+0.1 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 26, 2008 | 2008 President, FL | D+4 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 | R+0.7 |
| Sep 30, 2008 | 2008 President, FL | R+3 | D+2.8 | R+5.8 | R+0.7 |