Pollster record · how records are scored
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2004 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.51; 11% own record)
Average miss
4.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
24
19 races · 5 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2 | 5.1 | +0.8 | D+2.0 |
| 2012 | 2 | 3.1 | −1.4 | D+3.0 |
| 2014 | 1 | 6.1 | +3.4 | D+4.4 |
| 2016 | 5 | 5.2 | +1.4 | D+2.7 |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.4 | −0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2020 | 3 | 5.6 | −1.0 | D+1.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | 6.6 | −2.3 | R+4.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | 6.8 | +0.1 | R+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+5 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | R+8 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+6 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | R+8 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+11 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2024 House, FL-4 | R+7 | R+14.5 | D+7.5 | — |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+3 | R+12.8 | D+9.8 | D+7.9 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+10 | R+13.1 | D+3.1 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, FL-4 | R+12 | R+20.9 | D+8.9 | — |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+11 | R+16.4 | D+5.4 | D+10.1 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+14 | R+19.4 | D+5.4 | D+10.3 |
| Oct 16, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+1 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+6 | R+3.4 | D+9.4 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-4 | R+19 | R+22.2 | D+3.2 | — |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+6 | R+0.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+1 | R+0.1 | D+1.1 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-16 | R+9 | R+9.1 | D+0.1 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 19, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | Even | R+0.1 | D+0.1 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 19, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+4 | R+0.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+6 | R+7.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+4 | R+1.2 | D+5.2 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | D+18 | D+3.8 | D+14.2 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+3 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+7.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 3, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | D+5 | R+1.1 | D+6.1 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 Senate, FL | D+10 | D+13.0 | R+3.0 | R+4.8 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 President, FL | D+4 | D+0.9 | D+3.1 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 12, 2004 | 2004 Senate, FL | D+3 | R+1.1 | D+4.1 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 12, 2004 | 2004 President, FL | D+1 | R+5.0 | D+6.0 | D+4.0 |