Pollster record · how records are scored
Change Research
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2017 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.13
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.44; 45% own record)
Average miss
5.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
172
112 races · 36 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 9 | 4.6 | −1.3 | D+0.1 |
| 2018 | 60 | 5.7 | +1.3 | R+0.5 |
| 2020 | 79 | 5.7 | +0.0 | D+0.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | 5.8 | +2.4 | R+0.9 |
| 2024 | 19 | 4.4 | −0.5 | R+1.6 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | D+3 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | Even |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+7 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+9 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Senate ID | Todd Achilles v. James Risch | R+22 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ID-1 | Kaylee Peterson v. Russ Fulcher | R+21 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Governor ID | Terri Pickens v. Brad Little | R+21 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | D+1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| May 16, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | D+4 |
| May 10, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| May 8, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+7 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+3 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+5 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Generic ballot | Even | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+7 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Senate NE | Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts | R+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, NE | R+18 | R+20.5 | D+2.5 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, MN | D+3 | D+4.2 | R+1.6 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MN | D+12 | D+15.7 | R+4.0 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2024 President, NE | R+14 | R+20.5 | D+6.5 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 President | Even | R+1.5 | D+1.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President, NE | R+20 | R+20.5 | D+0.5 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 3, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MSD-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+25.6 | D+12.6 | — |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2024 House, PA-7D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.0 | D+5.0 | D+7.0 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2024 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | D+8 | R+1.9 | D+9.9 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2024 House, PA-17D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+7.8 | R+3.8 | — |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 2024 House, RI-1 | D+29 | D+31.0 | R+2.0 | — |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 2024 House, RI-2 | D+13 | D+16.7 | R+3.7 | — |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 2024 Senate, RI | D+16 | D+20.0 | R+4.0 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 2024 President, RI | D+14 | D+13.8 | D+0.2 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.5 | D+2.5 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 President, MO | R+9 | R+18.4 | D+9.4 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MO | R+5 | R+13.7 | D+8.7 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | 2024 President, MN | D+4 | D+4.2 | Even | D+1.9 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MN | D+11 | D+15.7 | R+4.7 | R+2.9 |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+12.2 | D+9.2 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MN | D+5 | D+7.7 | R+2.7 | D+2.2 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+12.2 | D+7.2 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 2022 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+12.2 | D+8.2 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, Nebraska CD-2 | D+3 | D+6.5 | R+3.5 | R+1.6 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, IN-5 | Even | R+4.1 | D+4.1 | — |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, ME-2 | D+9 | D+6.1 | D+2.9 | D+14.2 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, MO-2 | Even | R+6.4 | D+6.4 | D+2.5 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, NE-2 | D+1 | R+4.6 | D+5.6 | D+2.2 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-24 | D+2 | R+2.4 | D+4.4 | D+0.9 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, ME | D+12 | D+9.1 | D+2.9 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, MT | R+5 | R+16.4 | D+11.4 | D+8.7 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, Maine CD-1 | D+21 | D+23.1 | R+2.1 | R+0.1 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, Maine CD-2 | D+1 | R+7.4 | D+7.9 | D+9.8 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2 | Even | R+10.7 | D+10.7 | D+8.0 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 Senate, ME | D+6 | R+8.6 | D+14.6 | D+13.0 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MT | R+4 | R+10.0 | D+6.0 | D+8.0 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 Governor, MT | R+4 | R+12.9 | D+8.9 | D+7.5 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+2 | R+1.3 | D+3.3 | D+2.8 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+4 | D+1.2 | D+2.8 | D+4.1 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President | D+10 | D+4.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+8 | D+0.6 | D+7.4 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 | D+4.5 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+2.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.1 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, IA | Even | R+8.2 | D+8.2 | D+7.3 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+6.4 | D+5.4 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 House, OK-5 | Even | R+4.1 | D+4.1 | D+3.2 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 House, OH-1 | R+2 | R+7.1 | D+5.1 | D+7.2 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, IA | D+1 | R+6.6 | D+7.6 | D+7.5 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+1.7 | D+3.3 | D+5.5 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+4 | R+1.7 | D+5.7 | D+6.1 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+3 | D+0.3 | D+2.7 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-15D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+10.8 | D+8.8 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President | D+8 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AKD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+12.7 | D+9.7 | D+8.6 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+2 | D+1.2 | D+0.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.3 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+8 | D+0.6 | D+7.4 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+5 | R+3.4 | D+8.4 | D+5.4 |