Pollster record · how records are scored
Targoz Market Research
Method not recorded · scored polls from 2018 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.31
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.58; 19% own record)
Average miss
5.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
33
31 races · 9 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6 | 7.2 | +1.5 | D+0.6 |
| 2019 | 3 | 8.0 | +4.4 | D+7.9 |
| 2020 | 11 | 5.4 | +1.4 | D+1.2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.9 | +2.2 | D+1.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | 4.8 | +1.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2024 | 4 | 6.4 | +1.5 | D+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Governor TN | Jerri Green v. Marsha Blackburn | R+21 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Senate TN | Marquita Bradshaw v. Bill Hagerty | R+25 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+7 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Governor TN | Jerri Green v. Marsha Blackburn | R+24 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+5 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 President | D+3 | R+1.5 | D+4.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+3 | R+2.7 | D+5.7 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TN | R+23 | R+29.6 | D+6.6 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President, TN | R+21 | R+29.7 | D+8.7 | D+5.6 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+5 | D+4.9 | R+9.9 | R+2.3 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+7 | R+6.1 | R+0.9 | D+4.5 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | R+2 | D+1.0 | R+3.0 | D+0.3 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+3 | D+4.9 | R+1.9 | R+0.9 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+6 | D+14.8 | R+8.8 | R+3.7 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+30 | R+25.0 | R+5.0 | D+6.8 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+14 | R+7.5 | R+6.5 | D+0.7 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+2 | D+0.7 | R+2.7 | R+1.6 |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | D+3.4 |
| Jan 3, 2021 | 2020 Senate, GA | Even | D+1.2 | R+1.2 | R+0.8 |
| Jan 3, 2021 | 2020 Senate, GA | D+2 | D+2.1 | R+0.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+14 | D+2.8 | D+11.2 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+4 | R+3.4 | D+7.1 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+11 | D+1.7 | D+9.3 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MN | D+9 | D+5.2 | D+3.8 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+14 | D+1.2 | D+12.8 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, MN | D+9 | D+7.1 | D+1.9 | D+2.0 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+10 | D+2.3 | D+7.7 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | R+1 | D+0.3 | R+1.3 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 6, 2020 | 2020 President | D+1 | D+4.4 | R+3.2 | D+4.5 |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2019 Governor, LA | D+4 | D+2.7 | D+1.3 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 2019 Governor, MS | R+1 | R+5.1 | D+4.1 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 2019 Governor, KY | D+19 | D+0.4 | D+18.6 | R+1.4 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TN | Even | R+10.8 | D+10.8 | D+6.8 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | R+4 | R+0.1 | R+3.9 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TN | R+9 | R+21.0 | D+12.0 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | R+1 | R+0.4 | R+0.6 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 12, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TN | R+12 | R+21.0 | D+9.0 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TN | R+4 | R+10.8 | D+6.8 | D+6.8 |