Pollster record · how records are scored
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 1998 to 2024 · 98% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.12
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.48; 32% own record)
Average miss
6.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
104
90 races · 13 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 12.2 | +2.3 | R+1.9 |
| 2000 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.6 | D+0.1 |
| 2001 | 2 | 4.4 | +0.5 | R+2.8 |
| 2002 | 11 | 5.6 | +0.5 | R+0.2 |
| 2004 | 8 | 5.7 | −0.4 | D+3.8 |
| 2006 | 5 | 2.6 | −1.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2008 | 7 | 3.7 | +0.2 | R+1.8 |
| 2010 | 5 | 10.2 | +4.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2012 | 9 | 5.7 | −0.3 | D+2.2 |
| 2014 | 7 | 5.6 | −1.7 | D+0.2 |
| 2016 | 7 | 6.2 | −1.2 | R+0.1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0.4 | −5.2 | D+0.5 |
| 2018 | 6 | 7.1 | +1.4 | D+2.9 |
| 2020 | 25 | 7.5 | +1.8 | R+1.5 |
| 2022 | 5 | 1.4 | −2.1 | R+3.4 |
| 2023 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.2 | R+2.0 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0.8 | −0.2 | R+4.4 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | TN-9 | Justin Pearson v. Brent Taylor | R+4 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | FL-13 | Leela Gray v. Anna Paulina Luna | D+1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Governor SC | Jermaine Johnson v. Alan Wilson | R+7 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | D+1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | OH-15 | Don Leonard v. Mike Carey | R+4 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+30 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Senate ME | Troy Jackson v. Susan Collins | D+4 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | OH-15 | Don Leonard v. Mike Carey | R+5 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+25 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Governor NV | Aaron Ford v. Joe Lombardo | R+3 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+1 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-19D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+2.2 | D+0.8 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2023 Governor, KYD-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+5.1 | D+2.9 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NVD-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+1.0 | D+2.0 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PAD-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+2.9 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WID-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+4.9 | R+0.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 House, OH-10D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+16.7 | D+12.7 | — |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 President, GAD-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+0.2 | D+6.8 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+1.8 | D+6.8 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 House, VA-10D-ALIGNED | D+22 | D+13.1 | D+8.9 | — |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 Governor, MOD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+16.4 | D+14.4 | D+9.1 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 President, MOD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+15.4 | D+13.4 | D+7.3 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 House, OH-10D-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+16.7 | D+9.7 | — |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 President, TXD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+5.6 | D+3.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 President, GAD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+0.2 | D+2.8 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 President, NCD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.3 | D+3.3 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 President, OHD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+8.0 | D+6.0 | D+6.5 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 President, IAD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+8.2 | D+6.2 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+1.8 | R+1.2 | D+1.7 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.6 | D+6.6 | D+7.9 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | D+13 | R+1.7 | D+14.7 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 President, FLD-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+3.4 | D+9.4 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 President, AZD-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+0.3 | D+10.7 | D+2.2 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 President, PAD-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+1.2 | D+9.8 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+2.3 | D+9.7 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 President, MID-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+2.8 | D+2.2 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MID-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+1.7 | D+6.3 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 19, 2020 | 2020 President, WID-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+0.6 | D+6.4 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 7, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+3.0 | D+5.0 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 7, 2020 | 2020 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 4, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-21D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+6.6 | D+7.6 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 House, KY-6D-ALIGNED | D+7 | R+3.2 | D+10.2 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 1, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-6D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+7.2 | R+2.2 | R+7.0 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TND-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+10.8 | D+12.8 | D+6.8 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 Governor, GAD-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+1.4 | D+7.4 | R+0.5 |
| Sep 10, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-6D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+7.2 | R+4.2 | R+7.0 |
| Sep 8, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-2D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+2.2 | D+5.8 | R+6.9 |
| Apr 26, 2017 | 2017 House, MT-1D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+5.6 | R+0.4 | R+4.9 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 House, IN-9D-ALIGNED | Even | R+13.7 | D+13.7 | D+9.1 |
| Oct 7, 2016 | 2016 House, KS-3D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+10.7 | D+6.7 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 House, NJ-5D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+4.4 | D+2.6 | R+2.3 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NV | R+1 | D+2.4 | R+3.4 | R+3.6 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 President, NV | D+3 | D+2.4 | D+0.6 | R+1.6 |
| Sep 15, 2016 | 2016 Governor, WVD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+6.8 | D+6.2 | R+2.3 |
| Sep 15, 2016 | 2016 President, WVD-ALIGNED | R+32 | R+42.1 | D+10.1 | D+15.8 |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | Even | R+8.3 | D+8.3 | D+5.9 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+13.8 | R+2.8 | R+10.2 |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2014 House, NJ-5D-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+12.1 | D+7.1 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2014 House, CT-5D-ALIGNED | D+16 | D+6.5 | D+9.5 | — |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+13.8 | R+3.8 | R+10.2 |
| Sep 17, 2014 | 2014 House, CA-7D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+0.8 | D+3.2 | — |
| Sep 5, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+1.6 | D+4.6 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MTD-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+3.7 | R+2.7 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 House, CT-5D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+3.1 | D+0.9 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-11D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+17.1 | R+13.1 | R+18.1 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 Senate, VAD-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+5.9 | R+1.9 | R+3.7 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PAD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+9.1 | D+3.9 | R+2.6 |
| Sep 26, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-18D-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+0.6 | D+8.4 | R+4.7 |
| Sep 19, 2012 | 2012 House, MI-1D-ALIGNED | D+9 | R+0.5 | D+9.5 | R+0.9 |