Pollster record · how records are scored
Cherry Communications
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2014 to 2024 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.10
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.10; 8% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
6.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
15
10 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | R+1.6 |
| 2016 | 6 | 7.9 | +4.6 | D+0.2 |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.3 | −0.1 | D+5.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | 8.4 | +2.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2022 | 1 | 8.4 | −2.0 | D+2.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | 7.4 | −0.0 | D+3.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 President, FLR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+13.1 | D+7.1 | D+7.1 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FLR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+12.8 | D+7.8 | D+7.8 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+19.4 | D+8.4 | D+9.9 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 President, FLR-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+3.4 | D+8.4 | D+5.3 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+0.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FLR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+0.1 | D+2.1 | D+1.3 |
| Sep 9, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+0.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-7R-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+3.0 | R+8.0 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FLR-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+7.7 | R+6.3 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 President, FLR-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.2 | D+5.2 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 17, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FLR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+7.7 | D+3.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 17, 2016 | 2016 President, FLR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.2 | D+3.2 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-7R-ALIGNED | R+18 | D+3.0 | R+21.0 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+1.1 | R+3.9 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 20, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+1.1 | R+2.9 | D+2.1 |