Pollster record · how records are scored
Gravis Marketing
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2012 to 2025
Versus the field
+0.20
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.54; 50% own record)
Average miss
5.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
223
129 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 53 | 5.6 | +1.6 | R+2.8 |
| 2014 | 30 | 6.3 | +0.7 | R+0.3 |
| 2015 | 1 | 22.9 | −0.0 | — |
| 2016 | 72 | 5.1 | +0.1 | R+0.4 |
| 2017 | 11 | 4.7 | −0.8 | D+0.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | 5.4 | +1.0 | D+1.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | 4.6 | +0.1 | D+0.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1.1 | −1.9 | R+2.5 |
| 2025 | 1 | 5.4 | −1.5 | D+1.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+10 | D+15.4 | R+5.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.7 | D+1.7 | D+3.5 |
| Dec 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GA | D+2 | D+2.1 | R+0.1 | R+1.0 |
| Dec 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GA | D+3 | D+1.2 | D+1.8 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President | D+6 | D+4.4 | D+1.6 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 House, AK-1 | R+5 | R+9.1 | D+4.1 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, AK | R+9 | R+10.1 | D+1.1 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, NV | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, OH | R+2 | R+8.0 | D+6.0 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+5 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+6 | R+9.6 | D+3.6 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AK | R+3 | R+12.7 | D+9.7 | D+7.9 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.3 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+8 | D+4.5 | D+3.5 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MN | D+14 | D+5.2 | D+8.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President, MN | D+14 | D+7.1 | D+6.9 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+11 | D+1.7 | D+9.3 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+13 | D+2.8 | D+10.2 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 23, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+7 | D+1.2 | D+5.8 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 23, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+11 | D+0.6 | D+10.4 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 11, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 11, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | D+4.1 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.8 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AZ | R+13 | R+14.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.9 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Senate, AZ | R+1 | D+2.3 | R+3.3 | R+1.0 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+3 | R+0.1 | D+3.1 | D+1.3 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Governor, VT | R+10 | R+14.9 | D+4.9 | D+2.0 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 House, VT-1 | D+38 | D+43.3 | R+5.3 | R+6.3 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Senate, CT | D+23 | D+17.4 | D+5.6 | D+0.1 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Governor, CT | D+9 | D+3.7 | D+5.3 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 Governor, OH | D+5 | R+3.7 | D+8.7 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+6.5 | D+6.5 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, OH | D+9 | D+6.8 | D+2.2 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NV | D+2 | D+5.0 | R+3.0 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 House, MT-1 | Even | R+4.6 | D+4.6 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, CA | D+20 | D+23.9 | R+3.9 | R+7.9 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NV | D+2 | D+4.1 | R+2.1 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MT | D+3 | D+3.6 | R+0.6 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+4 | R+0.1 | D+4.1 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+5 | R+0.4 | D+5.4 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2018 Senate, IN | D+4 | R+5.9 | D+9.9 | D+6.7 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NY | D+23 | D+24.0 | R+1.0 | R+5.2 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, OR-5R-ALIGNED | R+23 | D+13.2 | R+36.2 | — |
| Sep 22, 2018 | 2018 House, MT-1 | R+9 | R+4.6 | R+4.4 | D+0.8 |
| Sep 22, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MT | D+4 | D+3.6 | D+0.4 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NV | D+12 | D+4.1 | D+7.9 | R+4.6 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NV | D+2 | D+5.0 | R+3.0 | R+5.5 |
| Sep 11, 2018 | 2018 House, IA-2R-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+12.2 | R+5.2 | D+6.6 |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AZ | R+4 | R+14.2 | D+10.2 | D+1.9 |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 Senate, AZ | R+1 | D+2.3 | R+3.3 | R+1.0 |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-18 | R+3 | D+0.3 | R+3.3 | D+0.4 |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-18 | R+5 | D+0.3 | R+5.3 | D+0.4 |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 2017 Senate, AL | R+4 | D+1.6 | R+5.6 | R+2.9 |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2017 Senate, AL | D+4 | D+1.6 | D+2.4 | R+2.9 |
| Nov 14, 2017 | 2017 Senate, AL | D+5 | D+1.6 | D+3.4 | R+2.9 |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2017 Senate, AL | R+2 | D+1.6 | R+3.6 | R+2.9 |