Pollster record · how records are scored
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group
Method: ivr · scored polls from 2018 to 2022
Versus the field
+0.30
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +4.37; 7% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
9.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
15
8 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 2.8 | −1.2 | R+4.4 |
| 2020 | 4 | 3.7 | −1.9 | R+7.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | 19.8 | +13.0 | D+12.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+1 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | R+6 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+4 | R+19.4 | D+15.4 | D+9.4 |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+18 | D+1.0 | D+17.0 | R+0.4 |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | D+7 | R+19.4 | D+26.2 | D+9.4 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 House, FL-1D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+35.7 | D+33.9 | — |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | D+6 | R+19.4 | D+25.4 | D+9.4 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+4 | R+3.4 | R+0.4 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+1 | R+3.4 | D+3.9 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+4 | R+3.4 | R+0.7 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+13 | R+3.4 | R+9.9 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | R+7 | R+0.4 | R+6.8 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | Even | R+0.1 | D+0.5 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-1 | R+31 | R+34.1 | D+3.4 | — |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | R+2 | R+0.4 | R+1.8 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+1 | R+0.1 | D+1.3 | D+1.4 |