Pollster record · how records are scored
St. Pete Polls
Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2012 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.51; 15% own record)
Average miss
5.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
50
25 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 14 | 10.5 | +5.6 | R+4.3 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.5 | −0.9 | R+0.4 |
| 2016 | 5 | 2.2 | −5.4 | R+7.4 |
| 2018 | 15 | 2.4 | −1.3 | R+1.0 |
| 2020 | 9 | 6.1 | −1.6 | R+0.9 |
| 2022 | 1 | 7.5 | +0.0 | R+0.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | 8.9 | +3.0 | D+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | Even |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Senate FL | Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody | Even |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FL-14 | Kathy Castor v. Mike Beltran | D+9 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+3 | R+12.8 | D+9.6 | D+8.0 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+6 | R+13.1 | D+7.4 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 House, FL-13 | Even | R+9.6 | D+9.6 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, FL-13 | R+1 | R+8.1 | D+7.5 | D+8.1 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+1 | R+3.4 | D+4.5 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-13 | D+16 | D+6.1 | D+10.1 | — |
| Oct 22, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+2 | R+3.4 | D+4.9 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-15 | R+8 | R+10.8 | D+2.8 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+2 | R+3.4 | D+5.4 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-21 | D+28 | D+19.9 | D+8.1 | — |
| Sep 22, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+6.6 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 18, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-18 | R+8 | R+14.8 | D+6.8 | D+12.9 |
| Sep 8, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+5.9 | D+5.4 |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-15 | R+2 | R+6.0 | D+4.1 | D+4.0 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+4 | R+0.1 | D+3.8 | D+1.4 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+4 | R+0.4 | D+4.5 | D+3.8 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+2 | R+0.4 | D+2.5 | D+3.8 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | R+2 | R+0.1 | R+1.5 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+2 | R+0.1 | D+2.0 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | Even | R+0.1 | R+0.2 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | R+1 | R+0.1 | R+1.3 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 1, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-16 | R+7 | R+9.1 | D+2.0 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+2 | R+0.4 | D+2.4 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+1 | R+0.1 | D+0.8 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 19, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-6 | R+5 | R+12.6 | D+7.6 | D+8.2 |
| Sep 6, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | Even | R+0.4 | D+0.7 | D+3.8 |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | D+5 | D+3.8 | D+1.2 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | D+3 | D+3.8 | R+0.8 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | D+3 | D+3.8 | R+0.8 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | D+5 | D+3.8 | D+1.2 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 18, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13 | R+3 | D+3.8 | R+6.8 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+1.1 | D+2.5 | D+2.0 |
| Oct 10, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | R+1 | R+1.1 | D+0.1 | D+2.0 |
| Feb 25, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-13 | Even | R+1.9 | D+1.9 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-26 | R+3 | D+10.6 | R+13.1 | R+4.3 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-22 | D+3 | D+9.3 | R+6.1 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-18 | R+9 | D+0.6 | R+9.7 | R+2.1 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-10 | R+8 | R+3.5 | R+4.2 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-9 | D+5 | D+25.0 | R+20.5 | R+14.4 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-2 | R+1 | R+5.5 | D+4.8 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-22 | R+1 | D+9.3 | R+10.3 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-18 | R+12 | D+0.6 | R+12.6 | R+2.1 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-16 | R+17 | R+7.2 | R+9.8 | — |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-13 | R+9 | R+15.1 | D+6.1 | — |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-10 | R+11 | R+3.5 | R+7.5 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-9 | D+3 | D+25.0 | R+22.0 | R+14.4 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-2 | D+1 | R+5.5 | D+6.5 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-26 | R+3 | D+10.6 | R+13.5 | R+4.3 |