Senate · 2026

Florida Senate (special)

Angie Nixon (D)v.Ashley Moody (R)LIKELY R

Incumbent: Ashley Moody, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+7.2

Nine in ten outcomes: Even to R+15

Chance of winning

94%

Ashley Moody

Polls alone

R+6.2

31 polls from 20 pollsters; latest Oct 30. Weight in projection: 79%.

Fundamentals alone

R+11.1

Weight in projection: 21%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.4

Partisan leanR+8.7

National environmentD+3.9

IncumbencyR+2.1

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapR+4.5

Fundamentals estimateR+11.1

Input: partisan lean

R+11.6

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$177K D · $2.3M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 31 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Nixon	Moody	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Oct 26–30	Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center and Public Polling Project	1,067 LV	43.5	50	R+7	R+6.5	7.8%	source
Oct 26–30	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	852 RV	45	49	R+4	R+3.9 moved 0.1 toward D	4.7%	source
Oct 28–29	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	43	49	R+6	R+5.5 moved 0.5 toward D	8.1%	source
Oct 26–28	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	500 LV	36	42	R+6	R+6.2 moved 0.2 toward R	5.8%	source
Oct 17–27	ActiVote	400 LV	47	53	R+6	R+5.9 moved 0.1 toward D	7.2%	source
Oct 25–27	St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics	916 LV	45	49	R+4	R+4.2 moved 0.2 toward R	6.8%	source
Oct 19–25	The New York Times/Siena College	813 LV	44	50	R+6	R+6.3 moved 0.3 toward R	7.1%	source
Oct 16–23	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	515 LV	43	51	R+8	R+7.8 moved 0.2 toward D	6.5%	source
Oct 20–23	RedBox ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED	4,832 LV	43	50	R+7	R+9.2 moved 2.2 toward R	5.7%	source
Oct 18–22	Workbench StrategyDEM.-ALIGNED for Nixon's campaign	800 LV	47	49	R+2	R+5.7 moved 3.7 toward R	5.5%	source
Oct 18–20	co/efficientREP.-ALIGNED	1,014 LV	40	48	R+8	R+4.1 moved 3.9 toward D	5.1%	source
Oct 12–19	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	1,471 LV	45	49	R+4	R+4.1 moved 0.1 toward R	4.8%	source
Oct 2–15	YouGov	825 RV	42	51	R+9	R+9.5 moved 0.5 toward R	2.5%	source
Sep 27 – Oct 15	ActiVote	400 LV	47	53	R+6	R+5.9 moved 0.1 toward D	2.1%	source
Oct 4–10	MDW for EDGE Communications	800 LV	42	48	R+6	R+6.0	3.3%	source
Oct 4–10	MDW CommunicationsDEM.-ALIGNED for EDGE Communications	2,351 LV	42	48	R+6	R+9.5 moved 3.5 toward R	3.3%	source
Oct 1–9	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	716 LV	41	52	R+11	R+10.9 moved 0.1 toward D	1.6%	source
Oct 5–7	St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics	836 LV	45	47	R+2	R+2.2 moved 0.2 toward R	1.4%	source
Sep 28 – Oct 5	YouGov	3,813 LV	44	49	R+5	R+5.5 moved 0.5 toward R	1.4%	source
Sep 28 – Oct 4	Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute	847 LV	42	52	R+10	R+9.7 moved 0.3 toward D	2.1%	source
Sep 28 – Oct 1	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	625 LV	40	50	R+10	R+9.4 moved 0.6 toward D	2.7%	source
Sep 25–27	Change Research for Freedom Project USA	1,063 LV	47	48	R+1	R+0.8 moved 0.2 toward D	1.8%	source
Sep 20–21	InsiderAdvantage	600 LV	41.8	49.3	R+8	R+7.0 moved 0.5 toward D	0.8%	source
Sep 14–21	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	830 LV	40	51	R+11	R+10.9 moved 0.1 toward D	0.4%	source
Sep 15–17	St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics	913 LV	44.8	45.2	Even	R+0.6 moved 0.2 toward R	0.3%	source
Sep 8–10	Quantus Insights	733 LV	43	50.4	R+7	R+7.6 moved 0.2 toward R	0.9%	source
Sep 7–9	Change Research for Freedom Project USA	1,107 LV	47	47	Even	D+0.2 moved 0.2 toward D	0.4%	source
Jul 8–17	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	848 LV	41.6	50	R+8	R+8.5 moved 0.1 toward R	0.0%	source
Mar 25 – Apr 13	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	414 LV	38	51	R+13	R+12.9 moved 0.1 toward D	0.0%	source
Mar 29–31	Emerson College	1,125 LV	36.3	47.3	R+11	R+11.5 moved 0.5 toward R	0.0%	source
Feb 21 – Mar 2	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	768 LV	38	46	R+8	R+8.1 moved 0.1 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2024	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell	Rick Scott	R+12.8
2022	Val Demings	Marco Rubio	R+16.4
2018	Bill Nelson	Rick Scott	R+0.1
2016	Patrick Murphy	Marco Rubio	R+7.7