Senate · 2026

South Carolina Senate

Annie Andrews (D)v.Darline Graham (R)LIKELY R

Incumbent: Darline Graham, currently Republican. Fundraising term uses Lindsey Graham's receipts as of June 30; Darline Graham became the nominee after his death in July.

Projected margin

R+7.6

Nine in ten outcomes: D+2 to R+17

Chance of winning

91%

Darline Graham

Polls alone

R+5.9

3 polls from 3 pollsters; latest Sep 9. Weight in projection: 41%.

Fundamentals alone

R+8.9

Weight in projection: 59%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+12.2

National environmentD+3.3

IncumbencyR+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapD+1.4

Fundamentals estimateR+8.9

Input: partisan lean

R+16.4

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$3.1M D · $1.4M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Likely R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 3 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Andrews	Graham	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 8–9	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	43.2	45.1	R+2	R+2.0 moved 0.1 toward R	37%	source
Aug 26–28	Abacus Data	306 LV	38	51	R+13	R+13.2 moved 0.2 toward R	30%	source
Aug 18–24	Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Andrews's campaign	700 LV	41	41	Even	R+3.7 moved 3.7 toward R	33%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Krystle Matthews	Tim Scott	R+25.9
2020	Jaime Harrison	Lindsey Graham	R+10.3
2016	Thomas Dixon	Tim Scott	R+23.6
2014	Charles Bradley Hutto	Lindsey Graham	R+15.5