Senate · 2026

Minnesota Senate

Peggy Flanagan (D)v.Michele Tafoya (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+5.3

Nine in ten outcomes: D+14 to R+4

Chance of winning

83%

Peggy Flanagan

Polls alone

D+3.1

8 polls from 7 pollsters; latest Sep 15. Weight in projection: 55%.

Fundamentals alone

D+7.9

Weight in projection: 45%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanD+4.3

National environmentD+3.3

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapR+0.1

Fundamentals estimateD+7.9

Input: partisan lean

D+5.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$2.0M D · $2.1M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Likely D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 8 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Flanagan	Tafoya	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–15	co/efficient	833 LV	43	42	D+1	D+1.9 moved 0.9 toward D	20%	source
Sep 9–14	SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis	654 LV	42	42	Even	R+0.8 moved 0.8 toward R	21%	source
Sep 8–10	Quantus Insights	720 LV	48.9	45.4	D+4	D+3.8 moved 0.3 toward D	18%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 2	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,192 LV	44	41.9	D+2	D+4.9 moved 2.8 toward D	18%	source
Aug 17–18	Deep Root AnalyticsREP.-ALIGNED	597 RV	50	45	D+5	D+8.6 moved 3.6 toward D	8.2%	source
Aug 13–17	SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis	661 LV	46	41	D+5	D+4.2 moved 0.8 toward R	7.5%	source
May 26–28	Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Craig's campaign	808 LV	51	44	D+7	D+3.3 moved 3.7 toward R	6.0%	source
Feb 6–8	Emerson College	1,000 LV	47.1	40.6	D+7	D+6.5	1.7%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2024	Amy Klobuchar	Royce White	D+15.7
2020	Tina Smith	Jason Lewis	D+5.2
2018	Amy Klobuchar	Jim Newberger	D+24.1
2018 (special)	Tina Smith	Karin Housley	D+10.6