Senate · 2026

New Hampshire Senate

Chris Pappas (D)v.John E. Sununu (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+6.5

Nine in ten outcomes: D+15 to R+2

Chance of winning

88%

Chris Pappas

Polls alone

D+4.9

22 polls from 13 pollsters; latest Sep 17. Weight in projection: 63%.

Fundamentals alone

D+9.2

Weight in projection: 37%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanD+3.2

National environmentD+3.3

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapD+2.3

Fundamentals estimateD+9.2

Input: partisan lean

D+4.3

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$5.6M D · $1.4M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 22 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Pappas	Sununu	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 16–17	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	47.8	39.9	D+8	D+7.8 moved 0.1 toward R	17%	source
Sep 9–11	co/efficient	958 LV	46	46	Even	D+0.9 moved 0.9 toward D	15%	source
Sep 8–10	Rasmussen Reports	1,000 LV	45	34	D+11	D+10.9 moved 0.1 toward R	15%	source
Aug 27–30	Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesREP.-ALIGNED for National Republican Senatorial Committee	600 LV	36	37	R+1	D+2.9 moved 3.9 toward D	14%	source
Aug 20–24	University of New Hampshire Survey Center for 7News	1,846 LV	43	45	R+2	R+1.9 moved 0.1 toward D	10%	source
Aug 17–18	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	1,411 LV	48	41	D+7	D+6.8 moved 0.2 toward R	13%	source
Jun 24–27	Moore Information GroupREP.-ALIGNED for NRSC	500 LV	43	42	D+1	D+5.3 moved 4.3 toward D	5.5%	source
Jun 24–25	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	1,614 RV	47	41	D+6	D+5.8 moved 0.2 toward R	2.0%	source
Jun 18–23	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	2,157 LV	47	44	D+3	D+3.1 moved 0.1 toward D	2.4%	source
Apr 17–21	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	1,130 LV	49	42	D+7	D+7.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.6%	source
Mar 21–23	Emerson College	1,100 LV	45.4	43.7	D+2	D+1.7	2.4%	source
Mar 16–18	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	1,491 RV	46	43	D+3	D+2.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.3%	source
Jan 28–29	yes. every kid. foundation.	563 LV	45	41	D+4	D+4.0	1.0%	source
Jan 15–19	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	2,038 LV	50	45	D+5	D+5.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.1%	source
Dec 26–28 ’25	Praecones Analytica for New Hampshire Journal	603 RV	42.3	35.6	D+7	D+6.8 moved 0.1 toward D	0.4%	source
Dec 9–11 ’25	Guidant Polling and StrategyREP.-ALIGNED for One Nation	600 LV	47	44	D+3	D+6.7 moved 3.7 toward D	0.5%	source
Nov 18–19 ’25	Saint Anselm	2,112 RV	44	41	D+3	D+3.0	0.2%	source
Nov 18–19 ’25	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	2,212 RV	44	41	D+3	D+2.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.0%	source
Oct 9–13 ’25	co/efficient	1,034 LV	45	42	D+3	D+3.9 moved 0.9 toward D	0.1%	source
Sep 17–23 ’25	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	1,235 LV	49	43	D+6	D+6.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.0%	source
Sep 10–12 ’25	co/efficient	904 LV	46	43	D+3	D+3.9 moved 0.9 toward D	0.0%	source
Sep 2–4 ’25	1892 PollingREP.-ALIGNED for One Nation	500 LV	45	43	D+2	D+5.8 moved 3.8 toward D	0.2%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Maggie Hassan	Donald C. Bolduc	D+9.2
2020	Jeanne Shaheen	Bryant Messner	D+15.6
2016	Maggie Hassan	Kelly Ayotte	D+0.1
2014	Jeanne Shaheen	Scott Brown	D+3.2