Senate · 2026

Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola (D)v.Dan S. Sullivan (R)TOSS-UP

Incumbent: Dan Sullivan, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+1.3

Nine in ten outcomes: D+8 to R+10

Chance of winning

60%

Dan S. Sullivan

Polls alone

D+2.3

12 polls from 6 pollsters; latest Sep 17. Weight in projection: 52%.

Fundamentals alone

R+5.3

Weight in projection: 48%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+8.7

National environmentD+3.3

IncumbencyR+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+0.4

Fundraising gapD+1.9

Fundamentals estimateR+5.3

Input: partisan lean

R+11.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$7.7M D · $2.6M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tilt R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 12 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Peltola	Sullivan	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–17	co/efficient	799 LV	46	48	R+2	R+1.1 moved 0.9 toward D	24%	source
Sep 8–11	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	800 LV	53	47	D+6	D+5.8 moved 0.2 toward R	24%	source
Aug 20–23	Alaska Survey Research	1,495 LV	50.6	49.4	D+1	D+1.2	18%	source
Aug 2–5	Alaska Survey Research	1,371 LV	50.8	49.2	D+2	D+1.6	7.0%	source
Jul 28 – Aug 4	Data for Progress	567 LV	53	47	D+6	D+6.0	15%	source
Jun 15–29	The New York Times/Siena College	593 LV	45.1	47.5	R+2	R+1.8 moved 0.6 toward D	10%	source
Apr 16–19	Alaska Survey Research	1,946 LV	51.4	47.7	D+4	D+3.7	0.9%	source
Mar 19–22	Alaska Survey Research	1,340 RV	52.4	47.6	D+5	D+4.8	0.2%	source
Jan 16–17	Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED for DSCC	611 RV	49	47	D+2	R+1.5 moved 3.5 toward R	0.9%	source
Jan 8–11	Alaska Survey Research	1,681 LV	48	46.4	D+2	D+1.6	0.1%	source
Oct 17–23 ’25	Data for Progress	823 RV	46	45	D+1	D+1.0	0.1%	source
Oct 10–15 ’25	Alaska Survey Research	1,708 LV	47.7	45.9	D+2	D+1.8	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Kelly C. Tshibaka (R)	Lisa Murkowski	Murkowski +7.4
2020	Al Gross	Dan Sullivan	R+12.7
2016	Ray Metcalfe	Lisa Murkowski	R+32.7
2014	Mark Begich	Dan Sullivan	R+2.1