Senate · 2026

Nebraska Senate

Dan Osborn (I)v.Pete Ricketts (R)TOSS-UP

Incumbent: Pete Ricketts, currently Republican. No Democratic nominee: Dan Osborn (independent) stands on the Democratic side of the margin. The projection is the polling average alone, with a wider interval, because no independent-versus-Republican race is in the backtest.

Projected margin

R+1.0

Nine in ten outcomes: I+10 to R+12

Chance of winning

56%

Pete Ricketts

Polls alone

R+1.0

6 polls from 5 pollsters; latest Sep 16. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+12.7

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineI+0.5

Partisan leanR+14.1

National environmentI+3.3

IncumbencyR+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+0.7

Fundraising gapI+0.1

Fundamentals estimateR+12.7

Input: partisan lean

R+19.0

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$2.3M I · $2.1M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 6 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Osborn	Ricketts	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–16	Wedgewood Polls	500 LV	48	52	R+4	R+3.6 moved 0.4 toward I	32%	source
Sep 8–13	SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC	503 LV	46	42	I+4	I+3.1 moved 0.9 toward R	34%	source
Aug 9–13	Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Osborn's campaign	600 LV	47	47	Even	R+3.7 moved 3.7 toward R	25%	source
May 8–11	Tavern ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Contours Inc.	1,165 LV	47	42	I+5	I+1.7 moved 3.3 toward R	6.7%	source
Feb 2–5	Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Osborn's campaign	600 LV	47	48	R+1	R+4.7 moved 3.7 toward R	1.2%	source
Dec 11–17 ’25	Lake Research PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED	900 LV	47	48	R+1	R+4.7 moved 3.7 toward R	1.2%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2024	Dan Osborn (I)	Deb Fischer	R+6.7
2024 (special)	Preston Love Jr.	Pete Ricketts	R+25.2
2020	Chris E. Janicek	Ben Sasse	R+38.3
2018	Jane Raybould	Deb Fischer	R+19.1