Nebraska Senate
Incumbent: Pete Ricketts, currently Republican. No Democratic nominee: Dan Osborn (independent) stands on the Democratic side of the margin. The projection is the polling average alone, with a wider interval, because no independent-versus-Republican race is in the backtest.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).
All 17 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Osborn | Ricketts | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23–29 | The New York Times/Siena College | 809 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 | R+6.3 moved 0.3 toward R | 19% | source |
| Oct 16–23 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 407 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | R+0.8 moved 0.2 toward I | 14% | source |
| Oct 18–22 | GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Working Class Majority PAC | 800 LV | 46 | 45 | I+1 | R+2.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 14% | source |
| Oct 14–20 | Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Osborn's campaign | 600 LV | 47.5 | 49.5 | R+2 | R+5.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 13% | source |
| Oct 15–18 | National Public AffairsREP.-ALIGNED | 598 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 | I+0.5 moved 3.5 toward I | 11% | source |
| Oct 15–18 | Concord Public Opinion PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED for Education Reform Now Advocacy | 500 LV | 48 | 41 | I+7 | I+2.8 moved 4.2 toward R | 11% | source |
| Oct 2–5 | National Public AffairsREP.-ALIGNED | 800 LV | 44.5 | 47.5 | R+3 | I+0.5 moved 3.5 toward I | 3.2% | source |
| Sep 24 – Oct 3 | YouGov | 1,809 LV | 48 | 47 | I+1 | I+0.5 moved 0.5 toward R | 5.5% | source |
| Sep 28–30 | co/efficientREP.-ALIGNED | 1,113 LV | 41.5 | 46.5 | R+5 | R+1.1 moved 3.9 toward I | 4.8% | source |
| Sep 8–13 | SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | 503 LV | 46 | 42 | I+4 | I+4.0 | 2.5% | source |
| Sep 3–8 | GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Working Class Majority PAC | 800 LV | 47 | 46 | I+1 | R+2.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 1.0% | source |
| Aug 9–13 | Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Osborn's campaign | 600 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | R+3.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 0.3% | source |
| Jul 1–31 | GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Working Class Majority PAC | — | 47 | 47 | Even | R+3.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 0.1% | source |
| May 8–11 | Tavern ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Contours Inc. | 1,165 LV | 47 | 42 | I+5 | I+1.4 moved 3.6 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Apr 1–30 | GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Working Class Majority PAC | — | 46 | 45 | I+1 | R+2.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Feb 2–5 | Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Osborn's campaign | 600 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | R+4.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Dec 11–17 ’25 | Lake Research PartnersDEM.-ALIGNED | 900 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | R+4.8 moved 3.8 toward R | 0.0% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Dan Osborn (I) | Deb Fischer | R+6.7 |
| 2024 (special) | Preston Love Jr. | Pete Ricketts | R+25.2 |
| 2020 | Chris E. Janicek | Ben Sasse | R+38.3 |
| 2018 | Jane Raybould | Deb Fischer | R+19.1 |