Senate · 2026

North Carolina Senate

Roy Cooper (D)v.Michael Whatley (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin

D+6.9

Nine in ten outcomes: D+16 to R+2

Chance of winning

90%

Roy Cooper

Polls alone

D+8.6

30 polls from 14 pollsters; latest Sep 17. Weight in projection: 68%.

Fundamentals alone

D+3.3

Weight in projection: 32%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+1.3

National environmentD+3.3

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapD+0.9

Fundamentals estimateD+3.3

Input: partisan lean

R+1.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$6.6M D · $4.0M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 30 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Cooper	Whatley	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 16–17	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	48.4	42.5	D+6	D+5.8 moved 0.1 toward R	13%	source
Sep 13–15	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	608 LV	49.2	34.1	D+15	D+14.7 moved 0.4 toward R	12%	source
Sep 8–10	Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED	1,084 LV	48.2	42.3	D+6	D+9.0 moved 3.1 toward D	11%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 3	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	675 LV	51.7	43.6	D+8	D+8.1	11%	source
Aug 21–31	YouGov for Elon University	565 LV	49	38	D+11	D+10.5 moved 0.5 toward R	9.7%	source
Aug 3–12	High Point University Survey Research Center	660 LV	50	45	D+5	D+5.1 moved 0.1 toward D	7.4%	source
Aug 9–10	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	600 LV	51.5	39	D+13	D+12.1 moved 0.4 toward R	3.7%	source
Aug 3–6	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Carolina Forward	915 LV	50.1	42.9	D+7	D+4.0 moved 3.1 toward R	6.5%	source
Jul 29 – Aug 1	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Gary Pearce \| Sam Hunt	967 RV	50	41	D+9	D+5.9 moved 3.1 toward R	1.8%	source
Jul 23–31	YouGov for Elon University	466 LV	53	42	D+11	D+10.5 moved 0.5 toward R	3.3%	source
Jul 23–27	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,005 RV	53	44	D+9	D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D	4.4%	source
Jul 21–23	YouGov	466 LV	53	42	D+11	D+10.5 moved 0.5 toward R	1.5%	source
Jul 10–11	Public Policy Polling	759 RV	48	44	D+4	D+4.2 moved 0.2 toward D	3.7%	source
Jun 15–27	The New York Times/Siena College	601 LV	50	43.2	D+7	D+7.4 moved 0.6 toward D	4.8%	source
Jun 1–10	YouGov for Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service	905 LV	47.7	34	D+14	D+13.2 moved 0.5 toward R	0.4%	source
May 10–11	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	600 LV	49.8	38.7	D+11	D+10.7 moved 0.4 toward R	0.6%	source
May 4–8	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Carolina Forward	957 LV	49.3	42.4	D+7	D+3.7 moved 3.1 toward R	0.5%	source
Apr 21–24	Opinion Diagnostics	830 RV	50.4	41.4	D+9	D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D	1.3%	source
Mar 26 – Apr 6	High Point University Survey Research Center	703 LV	50	42	D+8	D+8.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.8%	source
Mar 31 – Apr 1	Quantus Insights	987 LV	48.6	43.8	D+5	D+5.1 moved 0.3 toward D	1.5%	source
Mar 22–23	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	600 LV	48.9	41.1	D+8	D+7.4 moved 0.4 toward R	0.2%	source
Mar 9–18	YouGov for Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service	872 LV	48	34	D+14	D+13.5 moved 0.5 toward R	0.1%	source
Mar 13–14	Public Policy Polling	556 RV	47	44	D+3	D+3.2 moved 0.2 toward D	0.4%	source
Mar 8–9	Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions for Healthier United	800 RV	50	32	D+18	D+18.0	0.7%	source
Jan 31 – Feb 4	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Gary Pearce \| Sam Hunt	1,069 RV	50	40	D+10	D+6.9 moved 3.1 toward R	0.1%	source
Jan 12–15	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,512 RV	48.4	24.2	D+24	D+27.0 moved 2.8 toward D	0.4%	source
Jan 5–7	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Carolina Forward	1,105 LV	47	42	D+5	D+1.9 moved 3.1 toward R	0.0%	source
Nov 9–10 ’25	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	600 LV	47.3	38.6	D+9	D+8.3 moved 0.4 toward R	0.0%	source
Sep 14–15 ’25	Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	600 LV	46.1	41.9	D+4	D+3.8 moved 0.4 toward R	0.0%	source
Sep 2–8 ’25	Change ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Carolina Forward	855 LV	48	41	D+7	D+3.9 moved 3.1 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Cheri Beasley	Ted Budd	R+3.2
2020	Cal Cunningham	Thomas Roland Tillis	R+1.7
2016	Deborah K. Ross	Richard Burr	R+5.7
2014	Kay R. Hagan	Thomas Roland Tillis	R+1.6