Senate · 2026
Colorado Senate
John Hickenlooper (D)v.Mark Baisley (R)SAFE D
Incumbent: John Hickenlooper, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+22.5
Nine in ten outcomes: D+39 to D+6
Chance of winning
98%
John Hickenlooper
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+22.5
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.5
Partisan leanD+9.3
National environmentD+3.3
IncumbencyD+1.8
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+1.1
Fundraising gapD+6.6
Fundamentals estimateD+22.5
Input: partisan lean
D+12.5
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$4.3M D · $73K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Michael Bennet | Joe O'Dea | D+14.6 |
| 2020 | John Wright Hickenlooper | Cory Gardner | D+9.3 |
| 2016 | Michael Bennet | Darryl Glenn | D+5.7 |
| 2014 | Mark Udall | Cory Gardner | R+1.9 |