House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

SurveyUSA

Method: ivr · scored polls from 1998 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.36
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.48; 76% own record)
Average miss
4.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
1,367
539 races · 14 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
1998183.3−3.9D+2.6
20001144.9−0.1R+1.3
200120.8−2.2R+2.2
20021346.0+0.6D+2.5
2003145.6−1.2R+3.7
20042444.2−0.7R+1.6
200563.6−0.1R+0.1
20061794.7−1.2R+1.3
200773.1−0.8D+4.3
20082324.6−0.8R+0.3
2009111.9−5.0R+3.3
2010966.4−0.6R+2.1
201127.6−0.1Even
2012763.8−1.1D+0.7
2014696.6+1.2D+2.3
2015213.7+2.3D+2.5
2016374.9−1.7D+1.1
201727.1+1.6D+2.1
2018295.1+0.3R+0.6
2020414.5−0.7R+0.7
2022273.4−0.8D+1.2
2024254.5+1.4D+3.0
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 14, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+7
Sep 14, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaEven
Sep 13, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+8
Sep 13, 2026NE-2Denise Powell v. Brinker HardingD+4
Sep 13, 2026Senate NEDan Osborn v. Pete RickettsD+4
Sep 2, 2026NM-2Gabe Vasquez v. Greg CunninghamD+3
Sep 1, 2026CA-48Marni von Wilpert v. Jim DesmondD+3
Aug 17, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+16
Aug 17, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+5
Aug 8, 2026NY-21Blake Gendebien v. Anthony ConstantinoD+4
Jul 14, 2026ID-1Kaylee Peterson v. Russ FulcherR+10
Jan 30, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+15
Mar 4, 2025Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+19
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 31, 20242024 House, CA-49D+13D+4.3D+8.7D+0.6
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NMD+6D+6.0EvenD+0.3
Oct 29, 20242024 President, MED+8D+6.9D+1.1D+2.1
Oct 29, 20242024 House, ME-2D+12D+0.7D+11.3R+0.2
Oct 29, 20242024 House, ME-1D+32D+22.3D+9.7D+8.7
Oct 29, 20242024 Senate, MER+20R+23.8D+3.8D+2.3
Oct 28, 20242024 President, MND+8D+4.2D+3.8D+1.5
Oct 27, 20242024 House, CA-51D+36D+21.4D+14.6—
Oct 26, 20242024 President, NCEvenR+3.2D+3.2D+2.5
Oct 26, 20242024 Governor, NCD+15D+14.8D+0.2R+1.0
Oct 20, 20242024 President, NCD+1R+3.2D+4.2D+2.5
Oct 20, 20242024 Governor, NCD+16D+14.8D+1.2R+1.0
Oct 16, 20242024 House, NY-19D+4D+2.2D+1.8R+1.2
Oct 14, 20242024 Governor, WAD+16D+11.2D+4.8D+0.3
Oct 14, 20242024 Senate, WAD+23D+18.4D+4.5R+0.8
Oct 14, 20242024 President, WAD+22D+18.2D+3.8R+1.2
Oct 13, 20242024 House, MN-2D+8D+13.4R+5.5—
Oct 6, 20242024 House, CA-49D+12D+4.3D+7.7D+0.6
Sep 30, 20242024 House, NM-2D+9D+4.2D+4.8R+0.2
Sep 26, 20242024 President, MND+6D+4.2D+1.8D+1.5
Sep 23, 20242024 President, NER+16R+20.5D+4.5D+4.8
Sep 18, 20242024 President, NMD+8D+6.0D+2.0D+0.3
Sep 18, 20242024 Senate, NMD+13D+10.1D+2.9R+2.4
Sep 7, 20242024 President, NCD+3R+3.2D+6.2D+2.5
Sep 7, 20242024 Governor, NCD+14D+14.8R+0.8R+1.0
Nov 30, 20222022 Senate, GAD+3D+2.8D+0.2D+0.3
Nov 2, 20222022 Governor, GAR+7R+7.5D+0.5D+0.3
Nov 2, 20222022 Governor, MED+6D+13.2R+7.2R+1.6
Nov 2, 20222022 Senate, GAD+6D+1.0D+5.0R+0.1
Nov 2, 20222022 House, ME-2D+3D+6.1R+3.1D+0.6
Nov 1, 20222022 Senate, MOR+9R+13.3D+4.3D+2.4
Oct 31, 20222022 House, CA-49D+6D+5.3D+0.7—
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, MND+8D+7.7D+0.3D+1.4
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, NMD+7D+6.4D+0.6R+0.8
Oct 24, 20222022 House, NC-13D+1D+3.2R+2.2—
Oct 23, 20222022 House, MN-1R+9R+11.5D+2.5—
Oct 19, 20222022 Senate, WAD+8D+14.5R+6.5R+6.4
Oct 18, 20222022 Governor, CTD-ALIGNEDD+18D+11.4D+6.6D+3.3
Oct 18, 20222022 Senate, NYD+14D+14.0EvenD+3.9
Oct 18, 20222022 Governor, NYD+6D+7.3R+1.3D+1.5
Oct 16, 20222022 House, MN-2D+1D+5.2R+4.2—
Oct 10, 20222022 Senate, CAD+22D+22.1R+0.1D+1.9
Oct 10, 20222022 Governor, CAD+22D+18.4D+3.6D+3.1
Oct 10, 20222022 Senate, CAD+22D+21.8D+0.2R+5.8
Oct 6, 20222022 Governor, NMD+16D+6.4D+9.6R+0.8
Oct 4, 20222022 Senate, GAD+12D+1.0D+11.0R+0.1
Oct 4, 20222022 Governor, GAR+2R+7.5D+5.5D+0.3
Oct 3, 20222022 Governor, MND+10D+7.7D+2.3D+1.4
Oct 2, 20222022 Senate, NCR+1R+3.2D+2.2D+0.2
Sep 18, 20222022 Senate, MOR+11R+13.3D+2.3D+2.4
Sep 12, 20222022 Governor, NMD+12D+6.4D+5.6R+0.8
Jul 30, 20222022 House, MN-1R+8R+3.9R+4.1R+1.0
Dec 20, 20202020 Senate, GAD+5D+1.2D+3.8R+1.0
Dec 20, 20202020 Senate, GAD+7D+2.1D+4.9R+1.3
Nov 30, 20202020 Senate, GAD+7D+2.1D+4.9R+1.3
Nov 30, 20202020 Senate, GAD+2D+1.2D+0.8R+1.0
Oct 31, 20202020 PresidentD+8D+4.4D+3.6D+4.3
Oct 27, 20202020 President, Maine CD-2D+3R+7.4D+10.3D+9.5
Oct 27, 20202020 President, Maine CD-1D+19D+23.1R+4.1D+0.2
Oct 27, 20202020 President, MED+13D+9.1D+3.9D+4.1