Pollster record · how records are scored
Harper Polling
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2013 to 2020 · 32% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.15
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.76; 9% own record)
Average miss
3.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
22
16 races · 8 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 3 | 1.5 | −3.7 | R+2.2 |
| 2014 | 7 | 4.9 | +0.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2016 | 5 | 3.2 | −3.9 | R+1.7 |
| 2018 | 1 | 5.7 | +2.5 | D+1.3 |
| 2020 | 6 | 3.9 | −1.8 | R+1.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+15 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+13 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | MN-2 | Matt Little v. Eric Pratt | D+5 |
| May 11, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+11 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+8 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+9 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+4 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+1 | R+1.3 | D+2.3 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+10 | D+4.5 | D+5.5 | D+5.8 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+6 | R+1.7 | D+7.7 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+1 | R+1.3 | D+0.3 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+7 | D+4.5 | D+2.5 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-11R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+6.7 | R+5.7 | R+3.0 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.4 | D+2.6 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | Even | R+0.7 | D+0.7 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 8, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-1R-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+14.8 | D+9.8 | D+12.4 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.4 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | D+2 | R+0.7 | D+2.7 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 29, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+1.6 | R+0.4 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-21R-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+14.6 | D+0.6 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2014 Governor, PA | D+10 | D+9.9 | D+0.1 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 10, 2014 | 2014 Senate, SD | R+4 | R+20.9 | D+16.9 | D+6.7 |
| Oct 7, 2014 | 2014 House, WV-3R-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+10.7 | D+4.7 | — |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-21R-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+14.6 | D+6.6 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 21, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-1R-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.9 | D+4.9 | D+8.1 |
| Oct 14, 2013 | 2013 Senate, NJ | D+11 | D+10.9 | D+0.1 | D+7.5 |
| Sep 15, 2013 | 2013 Governor, VA | D+5 | D+2.5 | D+2.5 | D+4.0 |
| Jun 11, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MA | D+12 | D+10.2 | D+1.8 | R+0.6 |