Pollster record · how records are scored
High Point University Survey Research Center
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2010 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.01
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.27; 7% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
16
9 races · 7 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1 | 2.2 | −2.5 | D+1.1 |
| 2012 | 5 | 4.6 | +1.6 | D+2.5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 2.1 | −2.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2016 | 6 | 4.9 | −0.1 | D+1.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | 2.7 | −0.3 | D+1.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+5 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+8 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+9 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+17 | D+14.8 | D+2.2 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NC | D+7 | D+0.2 | D+6.8 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NC | R+5 | R+5.7 | D+0.7 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 President, NC | D+1 | R+3.7 | D+4.7 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NC | D+9 | D+0.2 | D+8.8 | D+1.9 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NC | R+2 | R+5.7 | D+3.7 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 President, NC | D+1 | R+3.7 | D+4.7 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 4, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NC | R+1 | R+1.6 | D+0.7 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 15, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NC | D+2 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 26, 2012 | 2012 President | D+3 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 26, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | R+1 | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 7, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | R+6 | R+2.0 | R+4.0 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | D+9 | R+2.0 | D+11.0 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 13, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | D+4 | R+2.0 | D+6.0 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 27, 2010 | 2010 Senate, NC | R+14 | R+11.8 | R+2.2 | R+3.3 |