Pollster record · how records are scored
East Carolina University Center for Survey Research
Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2020 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.22
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.96; 12% own record)
Average miss
3.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
25
12 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 11 | 5.2 | −0.4 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | 7 | 1.1 | −1.7 | R+1.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | 1.8 | −1.0 | R+0.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | Even | R+2.2 | D+1.8 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+16 | D+14.8 | D+0.9 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, SC | R+13 | R+17.9 | D+4.8 | D+6.5 |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+3 | R+2.2 | R+0.9 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+0.9 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+17 | D+14.8 | D+2.0 | R+1.0 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | Even | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | D+0.2 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+8 | R+7.5 | R+0.5 | D+0.5 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | R+5 | R+3.2 | R+1.7 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+7 | R+7.5 | D+0.2 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+2 | D+1.0 | D+1.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | R+6 | R+3.2 | R+2.8 | D+0.5 |
| Sep 10, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | R+3 | R+3.2 | D+0.4 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.3 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.1 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+11 | D+4.5 | D+6.5 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, SC | R+2 | R+10.3 | D+8.4 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, SC | R+8 | R+11.7 | D+4.0 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+12 | D+4.5 | D+7.6 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+1 | R+1.7 | D+3.1 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.5 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.4 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.5 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+14 | D+4.5 | D+9.5 | D+5.6 |