House Effects
Monday, November 2, 20261 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Victory Insights

Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2022 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.41; 9% own record)
Average miss
7.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
10 races · 4 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202229.6−0.4R+0.4
2024106.5+2.0R+1.9
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 22, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+7
Oct 22, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+4
Jul 30, 2025Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+1
Jun 10, 2025Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+5
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 3, 20242024 President, AZR+1R+5.5D+4.7D+4.7
Nov 3, 20242024 President, NMD+5D+6.0R+1.1D+1.0
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, AZD+3D+2.4D+0.3D+5.0
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, NMD+2D+10.1R+8.4D+1.4
Nov 2, 20242024 President, FLR+4R+13.1D+8.8D+7.2
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, FLR+5R+12.8D+8.3D+7.9
Sep 25, 20242024 President, FLR+2R+13.1D+11.1D+7.2
Sep 25, 20242024 Senate, FLR+1R+12.8D+12.0D+7.9
Sep 18, 20242024 Governor, NCD+5D+14.8R+9.6R+0.5
Sep 18, 20242024 President, NCR+4R+3.2R+0.4D+2.7
Nov 1, 20222022 Governor, FLR+13R+19.4D+6.7D+10.2
Nov 1, 20222022 Senate, FLR+4R+16.4D+12.4D+9.7