Pollster record · how records are scored
GQR
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2025 · 97% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.21; 37% own record)
Average miss
5.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.6
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
181
104 races · 7 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1 | 4.9 | +0.2 | R+1.2 |
| 2000 | 10 | 3.1 | −0.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2002 | 8 | 5.8 | −0.4 | R+1.9 |
| 2004 | 27 | 4.6 | +0.8 | R+1.9 |
| 2006 | 11 | 5.9 | −1.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2008 | 30 | 4.1 | −1.0 | R+0.6 |
| 2009 | 6 | 5.7 | +1.4 | R+0.1 |
| 2010 | 18 | 5.4 | +1.1 | D+0.5 |
| 2012 | 15 | 2.7 | −1.2 | R+1.4 |
| 2014 | 13 | 7.9 | +2.0 | D+0.5 |
| 2016 | 13 | 6.0 | +0.8 | R+4.2 |
| 2018 | 9 | 5.1 | −0.1 | R+0.8 |
| 2020 | 6 | 8.7 | +2.3 | D+1.1 |
| 2022 | 7 | 4.9 | +0.6 | R+1.2 |
| 2024 | 6 | 9.4 | +4.2 | D+0.3 |
| 2025 | 1 | 2.4 | −7.2 | D+3.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie v. Brian Fitzpatrick | R+1 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FL-13 | Leela Gray v. Anna Paulina Luna | R+3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+19 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | SC-1 | Nancy Lacore v. Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R+2 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | KY-6 | Zach Dembo v. Ralph Alvarado | R+3 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | NC-1 | Don Davis v. Laurie Buckhout | D+4 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NC-1 | Don Davis v. Laurie Buckhout | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ D-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+14.4 | R+2.4 | R+9.6 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MOD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+13.7 | D+10.7 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2024 House, NC-1D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+1.7 | D+9.3 | D+5.3 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2024 House, TX-15D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+14.2 | D+11.2 | — |
| Sep 22, 2024 | 2024 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+3.8 | D+7.8 | D+6.8 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MOD-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+13.7 | D+9.7 | D+3.3 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 2024 President, MOD-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+18.4 | D+7.4 | D+5.4 |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | Even | R+2.6 | D+2.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 House, NC-1D-ALIGNED | D+15 | D+4.7 | D+10.3 | — |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+4 | R+2.6 | D+6.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 House, NJ-7D-ALIGNED | Even | R+2.8 | D+2.8 | — |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 House, PA-8D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+2.4 | D+5.6 | Even |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+2.6 | D+5.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-1D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+7.3 | D+6.3 | — |
| Oct 7, 2020 | 2020 House, SC-1D-ALIGNED | D+13 | R+1.3 | D+14.3 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 26, 2020 | 2020 House, WA-3D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.0 | D+11.0 | D+7.1 |
| Sep 26, 2020 | 2020 House, AZ-6D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+4.3 | D+8.3 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 6, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-15D-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+10.8 | D+3.8 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 President, FLD-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+3.4 | D+8.4 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NMD-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+14.4 | R+5.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-15D-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.0 | D+6.0 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-6D-ALIGNED | Even | R+12.6 | D+12.6 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-26D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+1.7 | R+0.7 | R+3.5 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+8.5 | D+0.5 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-8D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+3.8 | D+0.2 | R+4.4 |
| Sep 8, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-15D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+6.0 | D+7.0 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 6, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-6D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+12.6 | D+11.6 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 HouseD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+1.0 | Even | D+4.9 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+2.2 | D+9.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+13.7 | D+10.7 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | Even | R+2.3 | D+2.3 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | D+8 | D+0.4 | D+7.6 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PAD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+1.4 | R+0.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 President, PAD-ALIGNED | D+8 | R+0.7 | D+8.7 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 President, OHD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+8.1 | D+6.1 | D+7.9 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 President, NVD-ALIGNED | Even | D+2.4 | R+2.4 | R+1.3 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 President, NCD-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+3.7 | D+7.7 | D+5.0 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | R+16 | R+5.7 | R+10.3 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 Senate, OHD-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+20.9 | D+3.9 | D+6.3 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NVD-ALIGNED | R+6 | D+2.4 | R+8.4 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MAD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 HouseD-ALIGNED | Even | R+5.6 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MED-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+4.8 | D+8.8 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 1, 2014 | 2014 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | D+7 | R+10.5 | D+17.5 | D+9.1 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 House, MN-8D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+1.4 | D+9.6 | R+9.4 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+8.3 | D+9.3 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+7.7 | D+2.7 | D+5.2 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.6 | D+5.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, COD-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.9 | D+1.9 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, IAD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+8.3 | D+7.3 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 22, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MED-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+4.8 | D+10.8 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+10.5 | D+13.5 | D+9.1 |
| Sep 9, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MED-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+4.8 | D+6.8 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 3, 2012 | 2012 HouseD-ALIGNED | Even | D+1.1 | R+1.1 | Even |
| Nov 3, 2012 | 2012 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+3.9 | D+0.1 | R+1.6 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 | R+1.6 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 HouseD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+1.1 | D+1.9 | Even |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 House, MI-3D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+8.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.9 |