House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Morning Consult

Method: live phone · scored polls from 2016 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.22
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.39; 54% own record)
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
489
58 races · 201 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2016253.6−0.8R+0.5
2018143.1−0.4R+0.8
20202264.3−0.7R+0.2
2022655.8+2.1D+3.0
20241595.3+1.4D+1.6
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 20, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Sep 13, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Sep 6, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 30, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 16, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Aug 9, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Aug 2, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jul 26, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jul 19, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jul 13, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jul 12, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jul 5, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jun 28, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jun 26, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jun 22, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jun 21, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jun 14, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jun 7, 2026Generic ballotD+4
May 31, 2026Generic ballotD+3
May 24, 2026Generic ballotD+3
May 17, 2026Generic ballotD+5
May 10, 2026Generic ballotD+3
May 3, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Apr 27, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Apr 26, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Apr 20, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Apr 19, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Apr 12, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Apr 5, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 29, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 22, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 16, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Mar 15, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 8, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 1, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Feb 22, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Feb 16, 2026Generic ballotD+1
Feb 15, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Feb 9, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Feb 8, 2026Generic ballotD+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 1, 20242024 Senate, WID+2D+0.8D+1.2D+2.9
Nov 1, 20242024 Senate, OHR+1R+3.6D+2.6D+4.0
Nov 1, 20242024 President, FLR+5R+13.1D+8.3D+7.2
Nov 1, 20242024 Senate, FLR+3R+12.8D+9.8D+8.0
Nov 1, 20242024 Senate, MID+8D+0.3D+7.7D+4.0
Nov 1, 20242024 President, OHR+9R+11.2D+2.0D+4.3
Nov 1, 20242024 Governor, NCD+16D+14.8D+1.4R+1.0
Nov 1, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.4D+2.6
Nov 1, 20242024 President, MDD+32D+28.5D+3.9R+1.4
Oct 31, 20242024 President, MID+1R+1.4D+2.4D+3.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, PAD+3R+0.2D+3.1D+4.6
Oct 31, 20242024 President, PAEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+2.5
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, TXR+3R+8.5D+5.5D+4.4
Oct 31, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9D+0.3D+2.9
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, MDD+8D+11.8R+4.2D+1.1
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 President, TXR+7R+13.7D+7.0D+7.1
Oct 30, 20242024 President, AZEvenR+5.5D+5.4D+4.7
Oct 30, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2D+0.6D+1.6
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, AZD+8D+2.4D+5.6D+4.8
Oct 30, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 28, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 26, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 25, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 24, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 23, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 22, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 21, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 20, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.9D+2.9
Oct 20, 20242024 President, MID+4R+1.4D+4.9D+3.6
Oct 20, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2D+0.7D+1.6
Oct 20, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.7D+2.6
Oct 20, 20242024 President, PAD+2R+1.7D+3.7D+2.5
Oct 20, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 20, 20242024 President, NVD+1R+3.1D+3.6D+3.6
Oct 20, 20242024 President, AZEvenR+5.5D+5.5D+4.7
Oct 19, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 18, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 17, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 16, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 15, 20242024 President, NVD+4R+3.1D+7.1D+3.6
Oct 15, 20242024 President, OHR+7R+11.2D+4.2D+4.3
Oct 15, 20242024 President, GAR+1R+2.2D+1.2D+1.6
Oct 15, 20242024 President, NCR+1R+3.2D+2.2D+2.6
Oct 15, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 15, 20242024 President, PAD+1R+1.7D+2.7D+2.5
Oct 15, 20242024 President, MID+2R+1.4D+3.4D+3.6
Oct 15, 20242024 President, TXR+4R+13.7D+9.7D+7.1
Oct 15, 20242024 President, MDD+33D+28.5D+4.5R+1.4
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, TXR+1R+8.5D+7.5D+4.4
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, AZD+12D+2.4D+9.6D+4.8
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, MDD+13D+11.8D+1.2D+1.1
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, MID+7D+0.3D+6.7D+4.0
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, NVD+15D+1.6D+13.4D+5.6
Oct 15, 20242024 President, AZD+1R+5.5D+6.5D+4.7
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, WID+5D+0.8D+4.2D+2.9
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, OHR+1R+3.6D+2.6D+4.0
Oct 15, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9R+0.1D+2.9