House Effects
Sunday, October 11, 202623 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

University of New Hampshire Survey Center

Method: probability panel · scored polls from 2000 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.20
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.27; 40% own record)
Average miss
6.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
223
90 races · 47 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
200065.7−0.0D+1.2
2002127.5−0.3R+1.2
2004134.8−0.5R+4.7
2006128.6+0.6D+1.9
2008255.5+0.3D+1.7
2010175.5+0.4D+2.2
2012245.4−0.0D+1.8
201312.8−0.8D+3.5
2014206.7+0.2D+1.3
2016309.5+4.0D+5.5
201883.4−2.7D+0.7
2020155.2+0.5R+2.5
2022175.8+0.3D+0.4
2024235.1−0.5R+1.5
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 21, 2026NH-1Stefany Shaheen v. Anthony DiLorenzoD+4
Sep 21, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+4
Sep 21, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+8
Sep 21, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsD+4
Sep 21, 2026Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+23
Sep 21, 2026VT-ALBecca Balint v. Gerald MalloyD+36
Sep 21, 2026NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+21
Sep 21, 2026ME-2Matt Dunlap v. Paul LePageD+6
Sep 21, 2026ME-1Chellie Pingree v. Ronald RussellD+22
Sep 21, 2026Governor VTAmanda Janoo v. Phil ScottD+6
Sep 21, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+27
Sep 21, 2026Senate RIJack Reed v. Raymond McKayD+20
Sep 21, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+17
Sep 21, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+8
Sep 21, 2026Governor MAMaura Healey v. Mike MinogueD+16
Aug 24, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+10
Aug 24, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+15
Aug 24, 2026Senate RIJack Reed v. Raymond McKayD+20
Aug 24, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+25
Aug 24, 2026Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+19
Aug 24, 2026Governor MAMaura Healey v. Mike MinogueD+24
Aug 24, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuR+2
Jul 20, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsD+3
Jul 20, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+14
Jul 20, 2026Governor VTAmanda Janoo v. Phil ScottR+11
Jul 20, 2026VT-ALBecca Balint v. Gerald MalloyD+38
Jun 23, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+3
Jun 23, 2026Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+16
Jun 23, 2026Senate RIJack Reed v. Raymond McKayD+17
Jun 23, 2026Governor MAMaura Healey v. Mike MinogueD+19
Jun 23, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+13
Jun 23, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+5
Jun 23, 2026VT-ALBecca Balint v. Gerald MalloyD+31
Jun 23, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+16
Jun 23, 2026Governor VTAmanda Janoo v. Phil ScottR+15
Apr 21, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+8
Apr 21, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+7
Apr 20, 2026Governor MAMaura Healey v. Mike MinogueD+20
Apr 20, 2026Senate RIJack Reed v. Raymond McKayD+18
Apr 20, 2026Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+23
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, RID+14D+20.0R+6.0R+0.4
Nov 2, 20242024 House, ME-1D+28D+22.3D+5.7D+10.0
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MED+11D+6.9D+4.1D+1.1
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NHD+5D+2.8D+2.2D+5.5
Nov 2, 20242024 President, RID+14D+13.8D+0.2D+3.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, VTD+32D+31.5D+0.5—
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MAD+23D+19.8D+3.2D+3.3
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MER+28R+23.8R+4.2D+6.3
Nov 2, 20242024 House, VT-1D+40D+32.5D+7.5—
Nov 2, 20242024 House, NH-2D+14D+6.0D+8.0D+12.1
Nov 2, 20242024 House, NH-1D+12D+8.1D+3.9D+5.0
Nov 2, 20242024 House, ME-2D+1D+0.7D+0.3D+2.5
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MAD+26D+25.2D+0.8D+2.8
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, VTR+39R+51.6D+12.6—
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, NHR+4R+9.3D+5.3D+9.2
Sep 16, 20242024 President, MAD+31D+25.2D+5.8D+2.8
Sep 16, 20242024 House, NH-2D+11D+6.0D+5.0D+12.1
Sep 16, 20242024 Governor, NHD+1R+9.3D+10.3D+9.2
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, MAD+26D+19.8D+6.2D+3.3
Sep 16, 20242024 President, RID+20D+13.8D+6.2D+3.9
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, RID+18D+20.0R+2.0R+0.4
Sep 16, 20242024 President, NHD+11D+2.8D+8.2D+5.5
Sep 16, 20242024 House, NH-1D+17D+8.1D+8.9D+5.0
Nov 6, 20222022 Senate, NHD+2D+9.1R+7.1R+3.5
Nov 6, 20222022 House, NH-2D+8D+11.7R+3.7R+1.3
Nov 6, 20222022 House, NH-1D+1D+8.1R+7.1R+4.5
Nov 6, 20222022 House, ME-2D+1D+6.1R+5.1R+0.9
Nov 6, 20222022 Governor, NHR+12R+15.5D+3.5Even
Nov 6, 20222022 Governor, MED+8D+13.2R+5.2R+2.6
Nov 6, 20222022 House, ME-1D+19D+25.9R+6.9D+9.2
Oct 3, 20222022 Governor, VTR+17R+47.0D+30.0D+6.0
Oct 3, 20222022 House, VT-1D+38D+34.8D+3.2R+9.8
Oct 3, 20222022 Senate, VTD+34D+40.4R+6.4R+9.4
Sep 19, 20222022 House, NH-2D+3D+11.7R+8.7R+1.3
Sep 19, 20222022 Senate, NHD+8D+9.1R+1.1R+3.5
Sep 19, 20222022 House, ME-2D+11D+6.1D+4.9R+0.9
Sep 19, 20222022 House, ME-1D+25D+25.9R+0.9D+9.2
Sep 19, 20222022 House, NH-1D+7D+8.1R+1.1R+4.5
Sep 19, 20222022 Governor, NHR+18R+15.5R+2.5Even
Sep 19, 20222022 Governor, MED+14D+13.2D+0.8R+2.6
Oct 28, 20202020 House, NH-2D+10D+10.2R+0.2D+4.3
Oct 28, 20202020 House, NH-1R+2D+5.1R+7.1D+1.4
Oct 28, 20202020 Senate, NHD+11D+15.6R+4.6D+0.3
Oct 28, 20202020 President, NHD+8D+7.4D+0.6D+2.6
Oct 28, 20202020 Governor, NHR+24R+31.8D+7.8D+13.0
Oct 12, 20202020 House, NH-2D+4D+10.2R+6.2D+4.3
Oct 12, 20202020 House, NH-1D+10D+5.1D+4.9D+1.4
Oct 12, 20202020 Senate, NHD+15D+15.6R+0.6D+0.3
Oct 12, 20202020 President, NHD+12D+7.4D+4.6D+2.6
Oct 12, 20202020 Governor, NHR+25R+31.8D+6.8D+13.0
Sep 28, 20202020 House, NH-1D+18D+5.1D+12.9D+1.4
Sep 28, 20202020 President, NHD+9D+7.4D+1.6D+2.6
Sep 28, 20202020 Governor, NHR+18R+31.8D+13.8D+13.0
Sep 28, 20202020 Senate, NHD+13D+15.6R+2.6D+0.3
Sep 28, 20202020 House, NH-2D+6D+10.2R+4.2D+4.3
Nov 4, 20182018 House, NH-2D+21D+13.4D+7.6D+9.9
Nov 4, 20182018 House, NH-1D+13D+8.6D+4.4D+0.5
Nov 4, 20182018 Governor, NHEvenR+7.0D+7.0R+0.7
Oct 18, 20182018 House, NH-2D+15D+13.4D+1.6D+9.9
Oct 18, 20182018 House, NH-1D+9D+8.6D+0.4D+0.5