2026-27 projections
FA Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 18% |
| 2Manchester City | #3 | R3 | 68% | 51% | 36% | 25% | 16% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 11% |
| 4Chelsea | #9 | R3 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 7% |
| 5Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | R3 | 57% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% |
| 6Manchester United | #13 | R3 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% |
| 7Aston Villa | #19 | R3 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 8Brentford | #17 | R3 | 53% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| 9Newcastle United | #21 | R3 | 53% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 10AFC Bournemouth | #24 | R3 | 52% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| 11Crystal Palace | #31 | R3 | 48% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| 12Tottenham Hotspur | #30 | R3 | 49% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| 13Leeds United | #34 | R3 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| 14Everton | #46 | R3 | 46% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% |
| 15Fulham | #47 | R3 | 46% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% |
| 16Nottingham Forest | #50 | R3 | 43% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| 17West Ham United | #53 | R3 | 41% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 18Sunderland | #107 | R3 | 36% | 16% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
| 19Wolverhampton Wanderers | #104 | R3 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Coventry City | #103 | R3 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21Southampton | #125 | R3 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Ipswich Town | #99 | R3 | 35% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Middlesbrough | #159 | R3 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 24Millwall | #237 | R3 | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Burnley | #187 | R3 | 29% | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Norwich City | #245 | R3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Sheffield United | #231 | R3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Hull City | #248 | R3 | 27% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 29West Bromwich Albion | #279 | R3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Bristol City | #320 | R3 | 23% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Birmingham City | #328 | R3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Wrexham | #294 | R3 | 24% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Blackburn Rovers | #381 | R3 | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Derby County | #348 | R3 | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Swansea City | #277 | R3 | 26% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 36Stoke City | #364 | R3 | 22% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 37Queens Park Rangers | #377 | R3 | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 38Portsmouth | #425 | R3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 39Bolton Wanderers | — | R3 | 15% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40Cardiff City | #457 | R3 | 16% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 41Charlton Athletic | #451 | R3 | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 42Preston North End | #436 | R3 | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 43Watford | #396 | R3 | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | — |
| 44Lincoln City | #441 | R3 | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 45Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R3 | 34% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.