2026-27 projections
FA Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 68% | 53% | 39% | 28% | 19% |
| 2Manchester City | #5 | R3 | 62% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 12% |
| 3Liverpool | #7 | R3 | 59% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% |
| 4Chelsea | #9 | R3 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 7% |
| 5AFC Bournemouth | #10 | R3 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 12% | 6% |
| 6Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | R3 | 50% | 33% | 20% | 11% | 6% |
| 7Aston Villa | #16 | R3 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 9% | 5% |
| 8Brentford | #22 | R3 | 46% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| 9Manchester United | #23 | R3 | 46% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| 10Tottenham Hotspur | #29 | R3 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| 11Newcastle United | #26 | R3 | 44% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| 12Fulham | #47 | R3 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% |
| 13Leeds United | #36 | R3 | 41% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 14Bradford City | — | R1 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| 15Everton | #38 | R3 | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 16Crystal Palace | #40 | R3 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 17Nottingham Forest | #45 | R3 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% |
| 18West Ham United | #57 | R3 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 19Salisbury FC | — | R1 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Sunderland | #113 | R3 | 28% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 21Wolverhampton Wanderers | #109 | R3 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Ipswich Town | #98 | R3 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Southampton | #117 | R3 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 24AFC Fylde | — | R1 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Coventry City | #94 | R3 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 26Middlesbrough | #133 | R3 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 27Norwich City | #195 | R3 | 22% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Reading | — | R1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 29Birmingham City | #234 | R3 | 19% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Hull City | #228 | R3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Burnley | #193 | R3 | 20% | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Leyton Orient | — | R1 | 13% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33West Bromwich Albion | #230 | R3 | 19% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Sheffield United | #211 | R3 | 20% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Millwall | #258 | R3 | 18% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 36Swansea City | #280 | R3 | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 37Queens Park Rangers | #334 | R3 | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 38Chesterfield | — | R1 | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 39Kidderminster Harriers | — | R1 | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40Blackburn Rovers | #360 | R3 | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 41Wimborne Town | — | R1 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 42Guiseley | — | R1 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 43Barrow | — | R1 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 44Carlisle United | — | R1 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 45Wycombe Wanderers | — | R1 | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 46Notts County | — | R1 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 47Portsmouth | #368 | R3 | 13% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 48Wrexham | #276 | R3 | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 49Dover Athletic | — | R1 | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 50Watford | #417 | R3 | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 51Stoke City | #313 | R3 | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 52Bristol City | #351 | R3 | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 53Newport County | — | R1 | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 54York City | — | R1 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 55Barnet | — | R1 | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 56Exeter City | — | R1 | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 57Barnsley | — | R1 | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 58Wigan Athletic | — | R1 | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 59Leicester City | #249 | R1 | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 60Burton Albion | — | R1 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 61Stevenage | — | R1 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 62Crewe Alexandra | — | R1 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 63Oldham Athletic | — | R1 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 64Shrewsbury Town | — | R1 | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 65Preston North End | #460 | R3 | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 66Derby County | #377 | R3 | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 67Bristol Rovers | — | R1 | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 68Cardiff City | #387 | R3 | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 69Luton Town | #322 | R1 | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 70Bolton Wanderers | #503 | R3 | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 71Lincoln City | #508 | R3 | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 72Colchester United | — | R1 | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 73Mansfield Town | — | R1 | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 74Plymouth Argyle | #433 | R1 | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 75Charlton Athletic | #477 | R3 | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 76Rotherham United | #513 | R1 | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 77Cheltenham Town | — | R1 | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 78Milton Keynes Dons | — | R1 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 79Rochdale | — | R1 | 5% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
| 80Port Vale | — | R1 | 4% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 81Stockport County | — | R1 | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 82Grimsby Town | — | R1 | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 83Blackpool | — | R1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 84Plymouth ParkwayEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.