2026-27 projections
FA Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 73% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% |
| 2Manchester City | #3 | R3 | 67% | 49% | 34% | 22% | 13% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% |
| 4Chelsea | #9 | R3 | 58% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| 5Brighton & Hove Albion | #11 | R3 | 57% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| 6Manchester United | #16 | R3 | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 7Aston Villa | #13 | R3 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | 5% |
| 8AFC Bournemouth | #21 | R3 | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 9Brentford | #19 | R3 | 53% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 10Newcastle United | #24 | R3 | 51% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% |
| 11Tottenham Hotspur | #29 | R3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| 12Leeds United | #32 | R3 | 47% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% |
| 13Crystal Palace | #34 | R3 | 47% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% |
| 14Fulham | #41 | R3 | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 15West Ham United | #46 | R3 | 44% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 16Everton | #42 | R3 | 46% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 17Nottingham Forest | #49 | R3 | 45% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 18Sunderland | #106 | R3 | 35% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 19Ipswich Town | #99 | R3 | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Burnley | #173 | R3 | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 21Coventry City | #98 | R3 | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Wolverhampton Wanderers | #111 | R3 | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Southampton | #124 | R3 | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 24Millwall | #235 | R3 | 27% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Sheffield United | #214 | R3 | 27% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Middlesbrough | #153 | R3 | 30% | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Hull City | #237 | R3 | 27% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Swansea City | #256 | R3 | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Blackburn Rovers | #368 | R3 | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Derby County | #371 | R3 | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Birmingham City | #263 | R3 | 25% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 32West Bromwich Albion | #265 | R3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Norwich City | #251 | R3 | 24% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Wrexham | #270 | R3 | 24% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Bristol City | #340 | R3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 36Portsmouth | #392 | R3 | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 37Queens Park Rangers | #360 | R3 | 20% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 38Stoke City | #344 | R3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 39Cardiff City | #413 | R3 | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40Preston North End | #467 | R3 | 15% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 41Watford | #416 | R3 | 18% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 42Charlton Athletic | #454 | R3 | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 43Lincoln City | #513 | R3 | 14% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 44Bolton Wanderers | #456 | R3 | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 45Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R3 | 33% | 2% | <1% | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.