2026-27 projections
FA Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 75% | 58% | 44% | 32% | 22% |
| 2Manchester City | #4 | R3 | 68% | 49% | 34% | 22% | 13% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 64% | 45% | 30% | 19% | 10% |
| 4Chelsea | #9 | R3 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% |
| 5Manchester United | #14 | R3 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% |
| 6Newcastle United | #18 | R3 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 7Aston Villa | #20 | R3 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% |
| 8Brighton & Hove Albion | #25 | R3 | 51% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4% |
| 9Brentford | #21 | R3 | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 10AFC Bournemouth | #24 | R3 | 52% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| 11Tottenham Hotspur | #30 | R3 | 50% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| 12Crystal Palace | #34 | R3 | 49% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| 13Leeds United | #37 | R3 | 47% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% |
| 14Nottingham Forest | #52 | R3 | 44% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 15Fulham | #50 | R3 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 16Everton | #46 | R3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 17West Ham United | #57 | R3 | 39% | 18% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 18Coventry City | #92 | R3 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 19Sunderland | #116 | R3 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Wolverhampton Wanderers | #105 | R3 | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21Ipswich Town | #103 | R3 | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Burnley | #183 | R3 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Middlesbrough | #168 | R3 | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 24Southampton | #139 | R3 | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Hull City | #265 | R3 | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Wrexham | #262 | R3 | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Millwall | #233 | R3 | 27% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Norwich City | #223 | R3 | 27% | 10% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 29West Bromwich Albion | #273 | R3 | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Sheffield United | #225 | R3 | 27% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Bristol City | #298 | R3 | 24% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Blackburn Rovers | #390 | R3 | 21% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Stoke City | #372 | R3 | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Swansea City | #290 | R3 | 25% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Birmingham City | #338 | R3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 36Charlton Athletic | #438 | R3 | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 37Queens Park Rangers | #377 | R3 | 21% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 38Lincoln City | — | R3 | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 39Cardiff City | #459 | R3 | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40Derby County | #346 | R3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 41Preston North End | #433 | R3 | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | — |
| 42Watford | #383 | R3 | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | — |
| 43Portsmouth | #422 | R3 | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | — |
| 44Bolton Wanderers | — | R3 | 12% | 2% | <1% | — | — |
| 45Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R3 | 32% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.