The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 25, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Bahia

Up to 35.9 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.4%	27.0%	+9.6 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.5%	32.2%	-12.3 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,941 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 35.4 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.2%	21.8%	-16.4 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	11.8%	18.7%	+7.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,445 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 34.6 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	63.0%	79.0%	+16.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	88.7%	82.3%	-6.4 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,477 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 34.1 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.5%	60.4%	+15.9 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.8%	0.8%	-3.0 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,441 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 7:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Botafogo

Up to 33.4 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	51.2%	34.5%	-16.7 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.7%	0.1%	-0.6 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.4%	2.8%	+1.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,211 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

Up to 31.4 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	9.9%	3.3%	-6.6 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.2%	49.6%	+11.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,730 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 31.4 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.1%	65.5%	+11.4 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	83.8%	89.5%	+5.8 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	34.3%	23.8%	-10.5 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	70.5%	63.9%	-6.6 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,362 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 31.0 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	86.0%	93.2%	+7.2 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	51.2%	60.5%	+9.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,306 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 29.3 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.5%	1.1%	-6.4 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	71.7%	83.9%	+12.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,911 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 28.7 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	9.9%	2.5%	-7.4 pp
FlamengoWin league	57.6%	41.8%	-15.7 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,749 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 28.2 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	57.6%	64.9%	+7.3 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	63.0%	56.5%	-6.5 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,220 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 27.6 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.4%	31.4%	+14.0 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	42.4%	28.0%	-14.5 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,783 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 27.2 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	71.7%	58.1%	-13.5 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	93.3%	89.7%	-3.7 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,286 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	52.0%	63.3%	+11.3 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	75.9%	83.8%	+7.9 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	24.0%	14.9%	-9.1 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	51.7%	43.8%	-7.9 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,858 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 26.6 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	76.4%	86.0%	+9.6 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	16.9%	8.3%	-8.5 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	98.0%	97.3%	-0.7 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,328 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 24.1 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	42.4%	49.0%	+6.6 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.3%	1.3%	-1.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,726 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 24.0 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	39.5%	31.4%	-8.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	41.4%	49.2%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,461 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 23.0 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.3%	37.7%	-10.6 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	26.8%	35.6%	+8.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,340 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 2, 11:00 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Santos: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.3%	4.4%	+2.1 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.4%	9.6%	-7.8 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,585 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 22.6 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	50.1%	39.6%	-10.6 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	54.0%	63.8%	+9.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,157 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Fulham

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	50.1%	37.9%	-12.2 pp
FulhamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FulhamFinish top 4	0.5%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
FulhamFinish bottom 3	21.2%	29.5%	+8.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,347 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 3, 7:45 PM UTC

Watford vs Lincoln City

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
WatfordWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
WatfordFinish bottom 3	24.2%	17.7%	-6.5 pp
WatfordAutomatic promotion	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	48.9%	57.0%	+8.1 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,927 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 24, 2:30 PM UTC

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstrelaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish bottom 2	11.6%	6.5%	-5.1 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	50.9%	59.5%	+8.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,476 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 31, 4:00 PM UTC

Fenerbahce vs Goztepe

Up to 22.1 percentage points between scenarios · Fenerbahce: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FenerbahceWin league	24.0%	28.3%	+4.3 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	51.7%	58.0%	+6.3 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GoztepeWin league	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
GoztepeFinish top 2	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
GoztepeFinish bottom 3	6.4%	7.8%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,541 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	4.7%	6.9%	+2.2 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	44.1%	54.0%	+9.9 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
LilleWin league	2.3%	1.4%	-0.9 pp
LilleFinish top 3	31.1%	22.7%	-8.5 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,427 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 21.9 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	4.6%	6.0%	+1.4 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	57.9%	66.5%	+8.5 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.5%	2.3%	-1.2 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.7%	40.3%	-7.4 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,144 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	61.0%	50.4%	-10.6 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	44.1%	54.9%	+10.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,619 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	5.3%	7.6%	+2.2 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	49.3%	58.4%	+9.1 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.5%	0.9%	-0.5 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	27.5%	20.0%	-7.6 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.3%	0.3%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,587 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

West Ham United vs Southampton

Up to 21.6 percentage points between scenarios · West Ham United: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
West Ham UnitedWin league	65.0%	72.0%	+7.0 pp
West Ham UnitedFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
West Ham UnitedAutomatic promotion	82.8%	87.2%	+4.4 pp
SouthamptonWin league	9.6%	5.7%	-3.9 pp
SouthamptonFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
SouthamptonAutomatic promotion	28.4%	22.2%	-6.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,688 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 30, 6:00 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 21.6 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	56.5%	38.6%	-18.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.2%	73.6%	-10.6 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	98.0%	94.9%	-3.2 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,071 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 4:15 PM UTC

Marseille vs Le Havre AC

Up to 21.5 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MarseilleWin league	1.0%	1.3%	+0.3 pp
MarseilleFinish top 3	18.5%	22.1%	+3.6 pp
MarseilleFinish bottom 2	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	56.5%	61.6%	+5.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,482 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 24, 1:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurum BB

Up to 21.5 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	38.5%	28.7%	-9.8 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	28.1%	36.3%	+8.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,517 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 21.2 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	43.3%	31.6%	-11.7 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	31.0%	42.0%	+11.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,307 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	75.6%	65.2%	-10.4 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	38.8%	49.9%	+11.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,360 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.8%	27.7%	-9.1 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.0%	46.3%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,653 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 1, 4:15 PM UTC

Paris FC vs AS Monaco

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris FCWin league	0.4%	0.6%	+0.2 pp
Paris FCFinish top 3	8.4%	13.2%	+4.8 pp
Paris FCFinish bottom 2	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
AS MonacoWin league	4.7%	3.0%	-1.7 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	44.1%	34.1%	-10.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,505 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 24, 2:15 PM UTC

Racing Santander vs Espanyol

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.3%	0.5%	+0.2 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	37.3%	27.5%	-9.8 pp
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	24.6%	32.8%	+8.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,565 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · PEC Zwolle: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	28.9%	19.2%	-9.7 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	27.2%	36.1%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,339 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 24, 3:15 PM UTC

Toulouse vs Troyes

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ToulouseWin league	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
ToulouseFinish top 3	5.2%	6.7%	+1.5 pp
ToulouseFinish bottom 2	1.4%	0.6%	-0.7 pp
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.3%	54.1%	+5.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,885 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC CologneWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FC CologneFinish top 4	1.0%	1.5%	+0.5 pp
FC CologneFinish bottom 2	14.7%	9.6%	-5.1 pp
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	41.4%	48.9%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,084 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 2, 5:00 PM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.0%	28.0%	-11.0 pp
AlanyasporWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	5.5%	8.8%	+3.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,428 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 31, 5:45 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.1%	55.9%	+1.8 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	83.8%	85.1%	+1.3 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	79.7%	80.8%	+1.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 8,949 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 23, 7:00 PM UTC

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.3%	0.5%	+0.3 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	38.8%	27.7%	-11.1 pp
Nottingham ForestWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish top 4	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish bottom 3	17.2%	25.0%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,392 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 3:15 PM UTC

Celta Vigo vs Real Betis

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Real Betis: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Celta VigoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Celta VigoFinish top 4	2.8%	4.5%	+1.8 pp
Celta VigoFinish bottom 3	6.7%	3.8%	-2.9 pp
Real BetisWin league	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Real BetisFinish top 4	48.2%	39.4%	-8.9 pp
Real BetisFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,051 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 31, 12:30 PM UTC

Lincoln City vs Birmingham City

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	48.9%	36.3%	-12.5 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Birmingham CityWin league	1.4%	0.7%	-0.7 pp
Birmingham CityFinish bottom 3	0.5%	1.2%	+0.6 pp
Birmingham CityAutomatic promotion	5.6%	3.1%	-2.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,771 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · VfB Stuttgart: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayer LeverkusenWin league	7.0%	9.0%	+2.1 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish top 4	81.5%	86.8%	+5.3 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VfB StuttgartWin league	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	27.1%	21.0%	-6.1 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.6%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,567 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Juventus

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	43.3%	29.0%	-14.4 pp
JuventusWin league	5.3%	2.8%	-2.5 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	49.3%	35.4%	-13.9 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,675 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 25, 3:30 PM UTC

Estoril vs Moreirense

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Estoril: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstorilWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish bottom 2	29.4%	20.4%	-9.0 pp
MoreirenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish bottom 2	11.9%	16.2%	+4.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,525 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Internazionale

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Internazionale: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	6.6%	11.8%	+5.2 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	51.9%	62.4%	+10.5 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternazionaleWin league	63.6%	53.1%	-10.5 pp
InternazionaleFinish top 4	94.8%	91.1%	-3.7 pp
InternazionaleFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,234 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 30, 8:15 PM UTC

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Sporting CP: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	50.9%	36.6%	-14.3 pp
Sporting CPWin league	27.9%	18.4%	-9.5 pp
Sporting CPFinish top 2	60.8%	44.5%	-16.3 pp
Sporting CPFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 806 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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