Pollster record · how records are scored
Global Strategy Group
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2002 to 2025 · 98% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.23
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.65; 31% own record)
Average miss
5.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
107
89 races · 20 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 1 | 2.3 | −4.4 | — |
| 2004 | 13 | 7.7 | +2.3 | R+0.2 |
| 2006 | 4 | 4.2 | −1.9 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 3 | 4.9 | −0.8 | R+7.3 |
| 2010 | 13 | 6.1 | −0.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2011 | 2 | 10.7 | +4.5 | R+0.3 |
| 2012 | 15 | 4.0 | −2.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2014 | 11 | 6.8 | −0.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2016 | 11 | 6.8 | +0.3 | R+0.4 |
| 2018 | 11 | 4.8 | −0.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2020 | 10 | 6.3 | −1.6 | R+1.7 |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.9 | +0.7 | D+1.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | 3.6 | −2.2 | R+1.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | 4.2 | −1.4 | R+4.3 |
| 2025 | 1 | 7.4 | −2.6 | R+1.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | NE-1 | Chris Backemeyer v. Mike Flood | D+3 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | D+4 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Senate KY | Charles Booker v. Andy Barr | R+9 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Governor KS | Cindy Holscher v. Ty Masterson | D+1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Senate KS | Adam Hamilton v. Roger Marshall | D+1 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | MI-10 | Christina Hines v. Mike Bouchard | Even |
| Aug 13, 2026 | MI-7 | William Lawrence v. Tom Barrett | D+2 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie v. Brian Fitzpatrick | R+4 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | NY-18 | Pat Ryan v. Jacqueline Auringer | D+14 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker v. Mike Turner | R+5 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | CO-5 | Jessica Killin v. Jeff Crank | R+1 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | IA-2 | Lindsay James v. Joe Mitchell | D+1 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | D+2 |
| May 11, 2026 | Governor NV | Aaron Ford v. Joe Lombardo | R+3 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+9 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie v. Brian Fitzpatrick | R+6 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | CO-5 | Jessica Killin v. Jeff Crank | R+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+14.4 | R+7.4 | R+9.4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | 2024 House, CA-41D-ALIGNED | Even | R+3.4 | D+3.4 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 3, 2024 | 2024 House, NJ-7D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+5.4 | D+3.4 | D+1.5 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.9 | D+5.9 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-22D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+6.1 | R+4.1 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 2022 House, CO-8D-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+0.7 | R+2.7 | — |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 Governor, COD-ALIGNED | D+17 | D+19.4 | R+2.9 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 Senate, COD-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+14.6 | R+4.1 | R+4.7 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 House, NM-2D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+0.7 | D+1.3 | R+3.2 |
| Sep 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+0.4 |
| Sep 19, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-22D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+6.1 | R+5.1 | R+6.6 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 2022 House, OR-5D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+2.1 | D+5.1 | — |
| Sep 20, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-18D-ALIGNED | D+18 | D+12.6 | D+5.4 | — |
| Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 House, VA-5D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+5.1 | D+7.1 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-1D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.1 | D+11.1 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 1, 2020 | 2020 House, VA-5D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+5.1 | D+8.1 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-16D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+11.0 | D+5.0 | D+1.8 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 President, Nebraska CD-2D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+6.5 | R+0.5 | R+1.4 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.6 | D+4.6 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-3D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+12.2 | D+11.2 | D+10.3 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 House, VA-5D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+5.1 | D+4.1 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 10, 2020 | 2020 House, MI-3D-ALIGNED | Even | R+5.9 | D+5.9 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+5.5 | D+3.5 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 12, 2018 | 2018 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+1.2 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+12.4 | R+2.4 | R+4.8 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-12D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+6.2 | D+5.2 | D+1.1 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-18D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+8.6 | D+5.6 | D+0.7 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WVD-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+3.3 | D+8.7 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 18, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-45D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+4.1 | R+1.1 | R+2.3 |
| Sep 17, 2018 | 2018 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+5.5 | D+2.5 | R+1.8 |
| Sep 17, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-1D-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+1.0 | R+4.0 | R+11.1 |
| Sep 16, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-18D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+8.6 | D+2.6 | D+0.7 |
| Sep 8, 2018 | 2018 House, WI-1D-ALIGNED | Even | R+12.3 | D+12.3 | D+6.8 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 House, AZ-1D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+7.3 | D+2.7 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2016 House, NV-3D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+1.3 | D+5.7 | R+2.3 |
| Oct 14, 2016 | 2016 Governor, WVD-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+6.8 | D+3.2 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 14, 2016 | 2016 President, WVD-ALIGNED | R+27 | R+42.1 | D+15.1 | D+14.8 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House, KS-3D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+10.7 | D+6.7 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-10D-ALIGNED | D+38 | D+29.7 | D+8.3 | — |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 House, IN-9D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.7 | D+11.7 | D+9.7 |
| Sep 24, 2016 | 2016 House, AZ-1D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+7.3 | R+0.3 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 16, 2016 | 2016 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | D+10 | R+1.2 | D+11.2 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 8, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FLD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+7.7 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 8, 2016 | 2016 President, FLD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-18D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+5.2 | D+0.8 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-24D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+10.4 | D+15.4 | D+13.4 |
| Oct 20, 2014 | 2014 House, HI-1D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+3.9 | D+3.1 | R+4.9 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-19D-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+19.8 | D+9.8 | R+3.0 |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2014 Governor, NV | R+44 | R+46.7 | D+2.7 | D+18.7 |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 2014 Governor, HID-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+12.4 | R+0.4 | R+3.7 |
| Sep 17, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.6 | D+5.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 10, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NHD-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+3.2 | D+3.8 | R+0.7 |
| Sep 8, 2014 | 2014 House, AR-2D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+8.3 | D+11.3 | D+12.8 |
| Sep 6, 2014 | 2014 Governor, ILD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+3.9 | D+6.9 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 6, 2014 | 2014 House, MN-7D-ALIGNED | D+24 | D+8.6 | D+15.4 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 2012 Senate, IND-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+5.8 | D+3.2 | R+3.7 |
| Oct 22, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-21D-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+5.0 | D+2.0 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 Senate, IND-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+5.8 | R+3.8 | R+3.7 |
| Oct 15, 2012 | 2012 House, NH-1D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+3.8 | R+0.8 | R+7.8 |